By Abdalla Ahmad, Senior Researcher and Advisor in Geopolitical Affairs, Damascus, Syria
The war in Yemen is an extension of the wars in the region, All crises in the region are interconnected, and the war in Yemen, represents a regional and international struggle to control the region.
Yemen has an important strategic location: the Aden’s port and the Strait of Bab al-Mandab control the international trade across the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
Therefore, Saudi Arabia is trying to impose its hegemony on Yemen. Also the United States is investing in the crisis through arms sales and the strengthening of its presence and domination on the Gulf states.
In any case, the devastating war threatens the stability in the region, and Saudi intervention is not expected to lead to a peaceful solution. The Saudi-led coalition has continued to wage its campaign against Houthis, resulting in heavy civilian casualties
The Houthis have responded to Saudi airstrikes with missile attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure and territory, including oil tankers and facilities and international airports.
Further complicating the civil war, the secessionist groups in the South of Yemen, supported by the United Arab Emirates, have clashed with the UN-recognized government forces based in Aden.
In fact, the recent development in Yemen indicates a new phase of the conflict, where the Saudi-led coalition is trying to achieves different goals ,which can be explained as follows
1-The failure in achieving the war goals, led to the chaos, and what is happening in the city of Aden shows that. So, the Saudi and Emirati allies are preparing the environment to implement a partition project in Yemen. Therefore, the Southern Transitional Council (NTC) forces seized control of government military bases and the semi-empty presidential palace after four days of clashes, leaving at least 40 civilians dead and others trapped in their homes with little water supply.
2- The Saudi coalition is well aware that the war cannot be resolved. So they gave orders to the pro-Emirati groups to seize large areas of Aden, any maybe the next move it will be aimed to get rid of Hadi .
Most likely the Saudi and the UAE are behind the recent clashes. Unfortunately, the scenario in Yemen could be a partition, to divide Yemen into two states or more, or to end up with forming a new regime, similar to those in Iraq and Lebanon, based on some kind of sectarian quota.
Meanwhile, the conflict continues to take a heavy impact on Yemeni civilians, making Yemen the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. The UN estimates that the civilian casualty toll has exceeded 15,000 killed or injured. Twenty-two million Yemenis remain in need of assistance, eight million are at risk of famine, and a cholera outbreak has affected over one million people. All sides of the conflict are reported to have violated human rights and international humanitarian law.
Without doubt, the situation in Yemen is highly complex and dangerously explosive. Saudi-led airstrikes are unlikely to produce a settlement. As recent history throughout the region has shown, military interventions rarely produced peaceful resolutions to entrenched conflicts, especially if religious undercurrents are involved.
Ongoing conflict in Yemen has caused the collapse of the health system and the economy, and away from the front lines, civilians struggle to access medical care.
The recent military events complicated the Yemeni scene, but at the same time they could open the way for some sort of compromise, especially after the Yemeni army and the Houthis were able to target Saudi positions with ballistic missiles and drones
In any case, the Saudi options seem difficult to implement. It’s difficult to dominate Yemen or to impose a settlement accepted by the Houthis.
Therefore, the devastated Yemen suffers from hunger, poverty, lack of medical care. Upcoming US arms deal to Saudis should be stooped , as well as the war, and the international community must help the Yemeni to reach a settlement , which could satisfy all parties in the conflict.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy and views of World Geostrategic Insights).