“There are no permanent friends or permanent enemies. Just Permanent Interests”. Carol Moseley Braun
By Rana Danish Nisar
Last of all, on the day of September 15, 2020, American President Donald Trump, Bahrain’s foreign minister Abdullatif al-zayed, Israel Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and UAE’s foreign minister Abdullah Bin Zayed signed memorable accord named “Abraham Accord” aim to normalize ties among Arab countries and Israel with the assistance of the USA.
According to security specialists, this Accord is the revival of Petrodollar which can now commonly be coined as “neo-petrodollar”. This ongoing Arab-Israel nexus or revival of petrodollar (neo-petrodollar) juxtapositions which was firstly coined during 1973 would have some serious implications for regional geo-politics and particularly for Pakistan.
In the recent piece of writing, the essayist easily analyzes the probable impacts of this nexus on Pakistan from several perspectives. Based on in-depth examinations, it is argued that Pakistan has more to lose than gain regarding this ongoing “Arab-Israel (Neo-Petrodollar) Romance”.
Moving ahead, the first impact this nexus leaves on Pakistan is that it adversely affects independent foreign policy. Since, we know that Israel mostly has relations with all powerful countries including China and the United States of America and now this Nexus will further strengthen Israel’s authority in the wider gulf region. It might affect our relations with these Arab States along with long-headed Turkey, China, India and the United States because they already have friendly relations with Israel.
Secondly, this nexus will directly leave its impacts on Pakistan’s economy. Since independence, Pakistan has had multiple economic crises and Pakistan cannot survive alone because our economy and GDP have large dependency on frequent aids and loans we take from Arab countries, other countries and finance Monterey institutions including IMF. Pakistan’s economy drastically falls down if these Gulf countries stop giving aid and loans to Pakistan. It either slows down our trade with these countries or stops it completely leading to high rates of inflation and goods as well as raw materials shortage in the country as we are already facing.
Thirdly, Pakistan from the starting days has had security threats from eastern border neighboring country India. Without any doubt, the reality is that Israel is much advanced in technology and has many advanced nuclear nukes which are quantitatively & qualitatively more advanced and superior. Israel could constantly provide such weapons and advance technology to different countries including India. Neither Pakistan is able to make such weapons nor is Pakistan’s economy in such conditions to purchase advanced weapons to counter India’s military power due to this India constantly keeps threatening Pakistan. It’s really the worst situation for Pakistan either to put “Gun (Security)” or take serious concerns regarding “Butter (Economy)”. Pakistan also does not have good relations with Iran since Iran and Israel are rivals of each other so Pakistan can be fearless from Iran side also.
Fourthly, Pakistan will constantly face interference from several countries in its internal matters and dangerous waves of terrorism. India continuously promotes terrorism in two provinces of Pakistan that is Baluchistan, Sindh and Waziristan too. India manipulates the regional states against Pakistan and also supports the separatist organizations fighting for freedom of Balochistan and Sindh from a long time. These separatist organizations give a tough time to Pakistan’s military forces from time to time. Since Israel has good relations with almost all countries of the world, it might lessen the foreign investment in Pakistan to a large extent. Pakistan will also face the lack of diplomatic support on international forum from the countries i.e. United Nations Organization, IMF, WHO and FATF. Pakistan might be alone in the context of trade investment foreign relations and this leads to economic instability in the country.
Apart from the serious consequences, Pakistan can opt for some suitable options. Pakistan should show moderation while making its foreign policy towards powerful and developed countries keeping in mind its own national interest. Pakistan should compromise in making relations with world countries wherever it is possible. Pakistan should immediately make better relations with Turkey, Iran and other regional countries aim to counter anti-Pakistan waves and it will be fruitful for Pakistan in near future. Pakistan can also take support from China because Pakistan has better relations with China as compared to other countries.
Pakistan holds a great geographical Importance due its strategic position on the globe. Pakistan has a best opportunity to use its geographic importance to control the world trade routes because Pakistan is one among those countries who have warm oceanic water where trade becomes possible throughout the year. In such circumstances where the world has left you alone, a country needs to promote unity in the state and take the public in confidence to overcome such circumstances.
Pakistan needs to negotiate with Arab countries to promote the Arab peace Initiative “Abraham Accord” introduced by the former government of the United States. Pakistan can promote religious integration towards the Arab World aim to integrate them on single “Muslim Ummah forum” i.e. O.I.C etc. Additionally, Pakistan should think wisely regarding recognition of Israel and move forward very wisely according to the changing dynamics of global politics.
Rana Danish Nisar – The author is a PhD (International Relations) Student at the School of Politics and International Studies (SPIS). He holds Mphil in (International Relations), Masters in (Pakistan Studies), and Masters in (International Relations) degrees. He won acceptance Harvard Project for Asian and International Relations HPAIR (USA), 2017. His research interests are broadly in South Asian Affairs, South Asia Geo-Politics, India-Pakistan Relations, South Asian Nuclear Politics, US and South Asia, Indian Ocean, Security studies, South Asian developments studies.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).