Afghanistan-China-Pakistan Fourth Trilateral Dialogue

By Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan

Afghanistan is was in a state of war for the last four decades, in the 1980s, War against Soviet Occupation, in 1990s, inter power struggle and war among various factions, and from 11 September 2001, the US invasion of Afghanistan.

Four generations have been victims of war, uncertainty, instability, and colossal destruction. Afghanistan is a country that faces unmatched bombing, much more than the total accumulative explosive than the explosive used in World War I and II.

However, under Doha negotiations, the US has agreed to withdraw all its troops before September 11, 2021. Almost half of the remaining forces have been evacuated since May 01, 2021. It seems that the US is planning to leave Afghanistan ahead of announcing the schedule.

The strategic location of Afghanistan, connecting East Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, Eurasia, with the Arabian Sea at Gwadar, Pakistan, to onward linking to Africa, Europe, and the Middle-east, was the focus of many big powers.  All neighboring countries and the whole region were suffering the impact of the Afghan war adversely. With the end of wars in Afghanistan, a stable and safe Afghanistan will facilitate trade among the regional countries and generate economic activities, leading toward prosperity. At least, extremism, intolerance, terrorism, drugs, and gun culture may reach an end.

Pakistan being the first door neighbor and front line state, a close ally with the US during Afghan War against Soviet occupation in the 1980s, was the largest victim. Pakistan sacrificed almost 80,000 precious human lives, the largest causalities among all stakeholders just behind Afghanistan itself. An estimated economic loss of US dollars 250 billion was caused to Pakistan. Pakistan was radicalized, intolerance, extremism, and terrorism were promoted with evil designs. Drug and gun culture was an additional gift of the Afghan war for Pakistan. Pakistan became the hub of almost all international intelligence agencies and became a training field for most of them. All types of conspiracies, intelligence operations, and criminal activities were conducted in Pakistan.

Since the American invasion after 9/11 in 2001, Pakistan stood with the US and became a non-NATO close ally in its war on terror. Unfortunately, the US innovated a new terminology, “Af-Pak,” and mistreated Pakistan along with Afghanistan. Drones attacks were launched intensively, and war spread over bordering areas with Afghanistan. Pakistan was asked to do more, irrespective of knowing the limitations of Pakistan. Instead of strengthening Pakistan, the US shifted its focus toward India, and Pakistan was written off. However, When the US realized that the Afghan war is invincible, and decided to get rid of it. The US administration approached Pakistan for a political settlement. Pakistan once again played an instrumental role in bringing the Taliban to negotiating table. The Doha talks were conducted directly between the Taliban and the US administration. A deal was reached, and the US agreed to withdraw all troops by May 2021. However, the change in Washington, the Joe Bidden Administration, delayed the complete withdraw till September 11, 2021.

All the regional countries, especially the immediate neighbours like Pakistan, Iran, China, and C-5 states in central Asia, demanded a stable and peaceful Afghanistan. Therefore, there were many regional initiatives for resolving the Afghan crisis in addition to the UN initiatives. Among them, the most prominent one was Afghanistan-China-Pakistan trilateral dialogue.

The fourth, Afghanistan-China-Pakistan trilateral Dialogue, was held on June 03, 2021, by video link. The dialogue was attended by all three foreign ministers, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Afghanistan Mohammad Haneef Atmar, State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs of China Wang Yi, and Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan Shah Mahmood Qureshi. This dialogue is essential as the emerging rapid changes in geopolitics are happening, and close cooperation among three neighbouring states is vital to coping with the new challenges united.

All aspects of the Afghan crisis were discussed warmly; American troop’s withdrawal and the post-withdrawal scenario were elaborated in-depth. Post withdrawal, the political settlement of Afghanistan, harmonizing various factions in Afghanistan, and reconstruction of the war-torn country are the significant challenges to face immediately. The impact of the Afghan situation on its own population and on neighboring nations are tough questions in the mind of many people. The role of neighbouring countries for sustainable peace in Afghanistan was also brought under discussion.

It is expected that after the withdrawal of all American troops, there might be a power vacuum and instability in Afghanistan for some time initially.

Read also: US Withdrawal from Afghanistan and Echo of its Consequences

But Afghans have learned bitter experiences and may learn from history and overcome all internal differences to make a safe, stable, and strong Afghanistan. The neighboring countries may extend a helping hand in rebuilding the war-torn country. Significantly, China can do wonders under its mega initiatives BRI. The whole region will prosper if the stability in Afghanistan returns.

Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan – Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Editor, Analyst, Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.

(This is an opinion article. The views expressed belong  only to the author and the publication of the article  does not necessarily imply  the endorsement of its content by  World Geostrategic Insights). 

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