US Withdrawal from Afghanistan and Echo of its Consequences

By Rana Danish Nisar

The Biden administration has declared that the US is now willing to leave Afghanistan, after the long war started at the beginning of the 21st century by G. W. Bush, under the name “war on terror (WOT)”.

After President Obama’s announcement regarding the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in the year 2014, Trump also followed the same presenting, in his 2020 election campaign, the slogan that he would withdraw all US forces from the Afghan territory. With his arrival in the Oval Office, Biden took the decision to completely remove the American troop presence from Afghanistan, starting on 11 September 2021.

Interestingly, the world is currently at a crossroads. Any right or wrong decision will have meanings for the world; right decisions will call for harmony while wrong decisions will call for dangerous catastrophe. In the context of the American extraction from Afghanistan, it also has meaning, practice, consequences and implications.

For a long time, Afghanistan has been the hub of instability, uncertainty, vagueness, bloody shock and insecurity. Afghanistan has been in flux since the USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The almost twelve-year long skirmish of the two powers USSR and USA and its allies on Afghan soil made the situation of Afghanistan super complex. With the disintegration of the USSR and the rise of US unipolarity, the Asian regional structure is in a state of flux. In the Afghan political environment, the rise of the Taliban and their regimes, the lapses in their control, the 11 September 2001 incident, and the inauguration of the ‘War on Terror’, have made Afghanistan and the region deeply unstable. Even today, there is a skirmish between the Afghan government and the Taliban over the central government and other rules of law. The withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan may have serious implications not only for Afghanistan, but also for neighbouring and nearby countries.

Firstly, there is the possibility of a new rise in extremism or terrorism. Northern alliances may arise in the region. Moreover, the intervention of ISIS is also to be reckoned with. The rise of ISIS and its move into Afghanistan could have intense and serious implications for Afghanistan and terrorism and extremism could spread seriously throughout neighbouring countries, particularly Pakistan.

From my point of view, the Taliban have their own special identity, uniqueness, exclusivity, like a special ‘Taliban’ identity card. All over the world, the world knows them by the title ‘Taliban’ and without this title they are nothing special to the world. Political experts, strategy specialists, security analysts, regional affairs experts use the word ‘Taliban’ in their literature and talk shows. So, the Taliban is the identity of a specific group and without this identity they are nothing. In fact, the Taliban would never want to lose their identity, and in order to secure it they can be aggressive, belligerent, contentious and quarrelsome, not only with the government of Afghanistan, but also with other powers and authorities.

Also, going forward, there is the possibility of restoring history, which means that because of Russia’s resurgence, there is the possibility of a Russian resurgence in Afghanistan. There is again the possibility of a flow. The Russian resurgence in the Central and South Asian region, the growing ties with China, the attempt to remove the old estrangement with Pakistan and turn it into a mutual engagement, with a possible China-Pakistan-Russia troika, may change the chessboard of power politics among the major powers regarding Afghanistan.

The rise of China and its engagement with Asian countries under the slogan of “soft power” win-win is making China an unprecedented “Asian superpower”. The US is considering China not only as a competitor but also as a rival in the international arena. Now, the US does not want to lose the crown of its unipolarity. Thus, it seems that the US is changing its notion from unilateralism to uni-multilateralism, but America does not want to leave the word “Uni” behind. The rise of China, the investment of billions of dollars in Iran, which is the arch-rival of the US can call the paradigm shift in the field of regional politics. The unprecedented China-Pakistan, CPEC nexus will also tie other countries in this knot. More recently, China shows its willingness to expand CPEC towards Afghanistan and Afghanistan will also be the part of CPEC. The changing dynamics of the region and the creation of new alignments and alliances to balance or counterbalance may invoke new super-complex regional security issues, rivalries, skirmishes and ‘real policy stratagems’.

In South Asia, India considers itself a pre-eminent regional power because of its larger territory, greater demographic power, strategic importance and deep connection to the Indian Ocean and very close to the Pacific Ocean, growing military modernisation and nuclear power. After 11 September 2001, India lent its support to its master (US) to put the gun on India’s shoulder in the context of the ‘war on terror’. Since then, India has been increasing its presence in Afghanistan under the safe shelter of the US. The withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan may call serious challenges for the Indian presence in Afghanistan. Not only India, the forces of NATO countries will also face serious security threats.

To conclude, in a nutshell, the world is at a crossroads today. Any right or wrong decision will have its impact; wrong decisions could result in catastrophic consequences. The US exit from Afghanistan will have major security ramifications and the echo could reverberate widely, very seriously and gravely.

Rana Danish Nisar  The author is a PhD (International Relations) Student at the School of Politics and International Studies (SPIS). He holds Mphil in (International Relations), Masters in (Pakistan Studies), and Masters in (International Relations) degrees. He won acceptance Harvard Project for Asian and International Relations HPAIR (USA), 2017.  His research interests are broadly in South Asian Affairs, South Asia Geo-Politics, India-Pakistan Relations, South Asian Nuclear Politics, US and South Asia, Indian Ocean, Security studies, South Asian developments studies.  

(The views expressed in this article belong  only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy or views of World Geostrategic Insights). 

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