Russia and China are “geographical neighbors”. One is the largest territory and the other is the most populous country in the world. Both must face up to each other’s existence and pay attention to the other’s changes. Conflicts and cooperation are both in their relations.
China has declared and implemented the “non-aligned” policy for years. China was neither willing to assume responsibility in international disputes for alliances, nor is it willing to accept a subordinate position inside an alliance. However, the “non-aligned” policy is like a double-edged sword. Over the years, China has played an active role in the international arena and at the same time it has been away from international conflicts. But is has lost opportunity to establish a network of powerful alliances that could support it inside the international community.
Under the trade war declared by Trump, China is tasting the consequences of “non-alignment” and it is eagerly looking for a power to which it can be relied upon. Russia, which is subject of sanctions from European Union and United States after the Crimea events, comes together China. The two sides have reached new heights in economic and trade cooperation and political exchanges than the past. The joint military exercises confirmed the close relationship between them.
Undoubtably China and Russia share strong common interest. The strong Chinese economic can alleviate the plight of the Russian economic crisis. On the other side China, it is looking for development opportunities around the world, and Russia is a country where it could be worth investing. Also, China is eager to close Russia to resist to the war trade pressure from the United States.
But the common interests could be strong enough to push the two sides to form an alliance against the United States?
An alliance has primarily the aim to address a potential risk. And an alliance without a security threat from a strong enemy is not in line with a defensive strategic culture. But if whether an alliance will be established could be only be a game strategy to be adjusted to the situation. And to avoid of being isolated in possible future crisis, it is necessary to lay the alliance foundation from now on.
On the other hand, the maintenance of the alliance is not an easy task. There are many sets of contradictions. The relationship between China and Russia is accompanied by changes in the international situation, especially influenced by American factors. From” the China-Soviet Union friendship treaty” to the “three China-US joint communiqués”, how far the relations between both can go depends on their respective relations with the United States. When one or both are close to the United States, the two countries maintain a distance. Meanwhile when the tensions of the two countries with U.S. raise, the possibility of joint resistance against the United States increase.
But is China ready to ally with the Russia? For a long time, there have been more conflicts between the two sides than cooperation. Even the establishment of a coalition under the China-Soviet friendship treaty could not hide the inherent conflict between them, and both sides are potential threat for each other. Although China and Russia have temporarily concealed their differences, but they still cannot avoid tensions in certain issues, such as the political influence of them on the Central Asian countries of the former Soviet Union. And in other regions. For example, the Russia’s provision to Vietnam of new equipment and advanced weapons, it helps Vietnam to explore oil and gas resources in South China sea, where China reclaims its ownership.
China has experienced a strong Soviet Union shadow; therefore, it is looking forward to facing a weaker Russia. The cooperation with Russia is only a foreign policy choice for China, not necessarily aimed to a military and political alliance.
In the history of China-Russian relations, Russia has long dominated. But with the rise of China’s economy, the role of China and Russia is slowly changing. Xi Jinping continues to enhance China’s initiative in the region and in the world meanwhile Russia was gradually losing its dominance, which Moscow cannot tolerate. Also, Russia keeps more connections with Europe than China. that it is for Russia an option rather than a necessity.
China and the United States have deteriorated relations due to trade wars and probably the tensions among them will continue for a long time. However, there are still variables in Russia-U.S. relations. The United States could change its strategy that oppose it to Russia and China at the same time, and it could resume normal relations with Russia. In this case, China will inevitably lose the foundation of cooperation with Russia.
The lack of trust could be the fundamental reason China and Russia cannot form a stable alliance. China has continuously changed its diplomatic strategy due to the international situation.
The existence of alliances depends not only on temporary needs or short-terms benefits, but also on long-lasting solid links. Even if the two sides are working closely together at present, it seems difficult to foresee the establishment of a solid stable alliance among them.