Part IV of the Special Series GLOBAL ALLIANCE AND POWER STRUCTURE: a collaboration between WGI.WORLD (World Geostrategic Insights) and CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security).
By Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC.
At the beginning of the 21st century, when China took second place in the world economy, many economic analysts predicted that China would surpass the United States’ GDP in 2030. With an incredible GDP growth rate, China held the largest amount of dollars in the world, posing an overly ambitious challenge to the United States, which became China’s largest debtor country. The global economy undoubtedly indicated that China would become the world’s leading economic power even sooner than expected.
However, Covid-19 deprived China of this ambition and the EU took second place, as China failed to overcome the national crisis caused by Covid-19. Furthermore, Xi Jinping’s stubbornness towards the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proved to be a critical obstacle that hampered the Chinese economy, causing the bubble to burst, high unemployment rate and a housing market tsunami.
Nevertheless, Xi Jinping smiled theatrically with a confident gesture as he stood between Putin and Kim Jungun during the Chinese Victory Day parade in 2025. He certainly confirmed that China’s best opportunity to take the top spot in the world economy will come soon, as the US has triggered a severe economic crisis caused by Trump’s tariff war. Many countries may focus on China or India, with markets much larger than those of the US, as India has already withstood Trump’s 50% tariff bomb. Indian Prime Minister Modi also attended China’s Victory Day parade to promote trade, despite longstanding military conflicts. India is a leading member of the QUAD, and it should implement the US Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China. But Trump’s tariff threat has prompted India to move closer to China for its own national interests.
Now, Trump’s trade protectionism is reshaping the global order and supply chain as a monstrous turning point toward the Great Depression. No country in the international community is immune to Trump’s tariffs, which endanger the world economy. The economic security guaranteed by a protectionist trade policy and industrial revival thanks to technological investments from other countries would be the fundamental reasons why Trump is launching his tariff bombs. However, the US has relied on Chinese manufacturing industries, which directly affect people’s lives due to the prices rising. Furthermore, large technology companies such as Tesla, Apple, and NVIDIA cannot manufacture new products without Korea’s semiconductors or AI chips.
By winning the tariff war, China may have a real chance for Xi Jinping to realize the “Chinese dream” through hegemonic competition between the United States and China. Trump has imposed a 125% tariff on imports from China, causing many US companies that depend on Chinese components to go bankrupt or close down. China is still the world’s manufacturing factory and invests heavily in technology industries. If China controls the dogmatic destination toward hegemonic power through the Belt and Road Initiative, it could cause economic potential to flourish.
Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream
According to the IMP report, the nominal GDP of the United States will be $30.51 trillion in 2025 compared to China’s $19.23 trillion. The IMF has estimated that the average GDP growth rate of the United States will be 2.7% and that of China 4.5%, almost 2% higher. However, China’s potential growth rate will fall to 3.8% in the period 2025-2030 due to structural factors such as demographic decline, slowing productivity, and excessive debt. The United States will also see a decline to 1.8% due to global economic insecurity and uncertainty. Furthermore, the explosion of customs duties would irreparably undermine Trump’s vision for economic growth, bringing it to a standstill.
If Trump persists in the tariff war not only with China but also with trading partners and countries in the international community, the United States will face a severe economic depression due to its isolation from international markets. In contrast, China will focus on strengthening trade relations with other major countries and increase its GDP. As a result, China could surpass the US GDP before 2030, and Xi Jinping would finally realize the “Chinese dream” as a fundamental part of the inspiration for the Belt and Road Initiative.
In recent decades, China has reshaped the economic and geopolitical landscape as a dominant global power. By accelerating the development of its manufacturing hub, China plays a key role in international diplomacy, technological innovation, and global trade. By becoming the world’s second-largest economy, Xi Jinping has established China as a model of development and influence not only in Asia but also on the world stage. His vision embodies national renewal, economic prosperity, and global importance, where China achieves greatness through innovation, unity, and global strategic engagement.
First, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was Xi Jinping’s ambitious strategy to realize China’s vision, a colossal project launched in 2013. The BRI has united 150 countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, and even Latin America, making it the largest global infrastructure and investment program. The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road would be key components in reviving and modernizing the ancient Silk Road. In particular, China is improving maritime connectivity by developing port infrastructure and sea routes, such as Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Piraeus in Greece, and Mombasa in Kenya. The goal is to secure critical nodes in global trade networks while promoting economic ties with participating countries.
Second, Xi Jinping extends his vision beyond domestic development and regional influence to reshape the global order. He advocates a multipolar world distributed among various countries rather than dominated by a single hegemonic power, while rejecting the Western-centered global order. Current global governance systems, heavily influenced by the US and its major allies, no longer reflect the reality of a multipolar world. In replacement, Xi Jinping emphasizes that China’s leadership in 15 specialized UN agencies significantly influences global standards and policies. Particular influence in areas such as technology and agriculture shapes global practices and regulations with China’s approach and priorities.
Third, Xi Jinping focuses China’s strategic multipolarity on counterbalancing US hegemony. China’s growing partnership with Russia and North Korea affects the common goal of challenging Western dominance. They have conducted joint military exercises and even coordinated efforts in the UN Security Council to block or abolish Western-led resolutions. China also leverages platforms such as the BRICS group to advocate for global governance reforms. For example, the New BRICS Development Bank offers an alternative to Western financial institutions by providing loans to member countries.
Despite such an ambitious vision and growing influence, Xi Jinping faces significant challenges and criticism, both domestically and internationally. These range from concerns about authoritarianism and human rights violations to geopolitical tensions and economic dependencies through the Belt and Road Initiative. These constitute formidable obstacles to Xi Jinping’s efforts to realize the Chinese dream and reshape the global order.
In Europe, China’s acquisition of strategic infrastructure, such as the port of Piraeus in Greece, has sparked debates about national security and economic sovereignty. Greece initially welcomed Chinese investment in the wake of the financial crisis, but skepticism has exploded due to the rapid expansion of Chinese influence. EU officials have warned that such investments create economic dependencies and only guarantee China undue influence over critical assets. The same skepticism has extended to Chinese technology, particularly 5G networks. The US and EU countries have restricted or banned Huawei, citing national security risks related to the possible use of the technology for espionage or cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.
China’s Economic Prosperity and Hegemonic Power
On October 3, 2025, at the end of fiscal year 2025, the U.S. federal debt reached $37.85 trillion, with total debt equal to 125% of GDP, marking an unprecedented record in U.S. financial history. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that this figure could rise to $50 trillion by 2035. In contrast, China officially reported foreign debt of $17.44 trillion denominated in domestic and foreign currencies. However, it has been revealed to everyone’s surprise that local governments have hidden debt exceeding 360%, which could trigger an economic crisis in China with varying symptoms in the impending collapse, as described below.
First, the hidden debt of local governments is the most threatening cause of the financial crisis. China faces a ticking time bomb created by the persistent burden of high debt. China’s public debt is estimated at 124% of GDP once off-balance-sheet local obligations are counted, while total non-financial debt is over 300%. Without a redesign of the fiscal framework or credible exit routes, it would be recycled into burden shifts.
Second, the significant change in the real estate market after the bubble burst. Forecasts for the Chinese real estate market in 2025 indicate an 8% decline in home sales instead of 3%, with a value between $1.23 trillion and $1.26 trillion. In addition, trade tensions and other external pressures would limit the Chinese government’s ability to alleviate the ongoing real estate crisis. The decline in the real estate market, which directly affects the lives of the population, will be the main indicator of economic collapse.
Third, there is an unbeatable unemployment rate. China’s unemployment rate in September 2025 was 5.30%, up from 5.20% in August. The 0.10 percentage point increase signals continuing economic difficulties across the labor market. Employment in the manufacturing sector would be severely constrained by global trade tensions since Trump declared a tariff war around the world. In particular, the worsening pressure of youth unemployment in cities has accumulated the population’s dissatisfaction with Xi Jinping’s dictatorship based on the communist government and system.
Fourth, it is a communist autocracy that makes Xi Jinping’s Chinese dream flourish. Xi Jinping, with his excessive patriotism, aims to dethrone the hegemonic position of the United States and, conversely, presents China itself as a global superpower through the Chinese Model. In 2019, he reformed the constitutional law to secure him a permanent power, but his leadership may suffer a severe decline due to an overall failure in realizing the Chinese Dream. Moreover, the prolonged pressure on Tibet, Xinjiang Uyghur, and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which violates the human rights of minorities, is also weakening Xi Jinping’s leadership.
Nevertheless, there is a forward-looking vision for China’s economic prosperity. The World Bank has predicted China’s economic growth of 4.8% in 2025, as part of an overall boost across trade projections in Asia and the Pacific. This is up from 4% in April, when the United States raised tariffs on Chinese imports to a total of 125%. China has maintained targeted consumer exchange programs to support retail sales so that exports, one of the main drivers of its growth, could continue to grow, overcoming the collapse of the domestic real estate market. In particular, shipments to Southeast Asia and Europe have offset the sharp decline in exports to the United States.
As a result, Xi Jinping assures that he will ultimately realize the Chinese dream through economic prosperity, while the United States will face continued economic difficulties due to the tariff war. To become a global superpower, military power, a dominant manufacturing sector, and a superior global system to control the world order would be inevitable conditions. If Xi Jinping succeeds in the Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to connect global markets not only in the economy but also in hegemonic power, China could take top priority by surpassing the United States. In particular, China can completely reorganize the global order and supply chain as the world center in the manufacturing sector.
In contrast, the United States pays $1.33 trillion in annual interest on its public debt, which is higher than its military spending of $997 billion in 2025. The economic structure of the United States consists mainly of the financial and monetary system, which is heavily dependent on foreign goods and trade. Some sectors of the manufacturing industry have almost disappeared, such as shipbuilding, to the extent that the United States is totally dependent on Korea’s technology and production capacity to build military warships.
One Belt One Road and Dogmatic Destination
One Belt One Road or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the main part of the Chinese Dream, as well as the shortest route to gaining hegemonic power as a global superpower. Xi Jinping launched it through an ambitious economic development project to restore the ancient Silk Road, connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe. In addition to promoting better connectivity and cooperation with the 78 participating countries, it focuses on building infrastructure networks such as roads, railways, seaports, power grids, oil and gas pipelines, and various related projects.
Two main components come from the Silk Road Economic Belt via the land channel and the Maritime Silk Road via the sea channel via the southern coast to the Mediterranean, Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia. China has invested over $1 trillion, financing participating countries with low-cost loans.
By connecting underdeveloped border regions with neighboring countries, China expands its economic interests to stimulate domestic growth. It creates new markets for Chinese products, allows the manufacturing powerhouse to control convenient export routes, and effectively channels excess production capacity.
However, the Belt and Road Initiative should not be considered only as an inclusive project for regional development, but rather a strategic driver for China to increase its influence and control at the regional level. China exploits the BRI to assert its dominance in global politics and economics by establishing military bases or acquiring strategic resources in the countries involved. Such a dogmatic destination pushes China to become a hegemonic player on the global stage. For example, China is increasing the use of the Chinese yuan in BRI regions, challenging the supernatural power of the US dollar as the world currency.
Currently, the uncertainty of the BRI adds a negative sequence that damages Xi Jinping’s leadership. The main concern stems from the obvious fact that the BRI has led participating countries to a rapid increase in public debt under the guise of low-interest loans. For example, the port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka was built using Chinese funding, but now represents a serious financial burden for the country.
Transparency is another cause for suspicion, as projects have mostly been conducted without clear and comprehensive documentation or legitimate procedures, leading to inefficiencies, corruption, and environmental risks caused by excessive destruction and consumption of resources. Most developing countries have raised an important point of contention with potential security risks, denouncing China and distancing themselves from such dogmatic projects.
Despite all these controversial outcomes, Xi Jinping still has the opportunity to realize the Chinese dream through the BRI with a positive vision. Some countries have surprisingly achieved significant improvements in infrastructure development with increased economic activity and job creation. This has also facilitated closer diplomatic relations between participating countries, leading to greater regional cooperation. If China intends to continue its commitment to building a global connectivity network, Xi Jinping should emphasize the importance of careful planning, implementation, and communication, while compromising political attempts through dogmatic destinations. In fact, the Chinese yuan is directly intertwined with the BRI, paving the way for its greater use on the global stage. This would simultaneously enhance China’s national competitiveness not only in economic terms but also in terms of hegemonic power.
China’s Vision for Global Power
Harvard professor Joseph Nye defines soft power as a country’s ability to influence others through non-coercive means or the appeal and attractiveness of elements such as culture, political values, and foreign policies to effect change. For example, China’s promotion of digital connectivity through various BRI projects, such as the construction of 5G networks in Africa and Southeast Asia, has increased data security and digital sovereignty. These projects strengthen China’s technological and economic influence over partner countries, thereby increasing its soft power more than its hard power, so that China ultimately becomes a global power.
If China dreams of becoming a true superpower in global society, it should pursue both hard power and soft power simultaneously. The Chinese dream can become a reality when China succeeds in reorganizing its national strategy by focusing on hard power, such as the military, economy, and technology. The Belt and Road Initiative has been regarded as the hegemonic model for domestic economic growth and expansion in participating countries.
Although China exceeds the GDP of the United States, there are still several obstacles to becoming a true superpower, because GDP alone does not guarantee global leadership.
In China the communist government controls the national systems, exercising autocratic power in many fields, and human rights violations persist. However, Xi Jinping’s leadership is not secure, and shadows remain over China’s future. The growing public debt of local governments, the collapse of the real estate market, and the worsening unemployment rate are critical factors hindering China’s quest for global power. If Xi Jinping insists on the Chinese dream, he should first reset the Belt and Road Initiative as a path to soft power rather than hard power.
Author: Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea – U.S. Political Development), Washington DC. Sunny Lee is the author of 115 academic books in politics (original English and in German, French, Russian, Polish, Dutch, Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese). She is a bestseller writer not only in politics but also in literature on Amazon. Her recent book is titled: “The Influence on Humankind’s Peace through Korean Reunification: Creating new paradigm in social science by interdisciplinary research.”
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).