Part V of the Special Series GLOBAL ALLIANCE AND POWER STRUCTURE: a collaboration between WGI.WORLD (World Geostrategic Insights) and CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security).
By Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea-U.S. Political Development), Washington DC.
The global power structure has undergone a profound transformation since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump’s tariff war further undermines its prospects and future potential.
Currently, the global order is grappling with multilateral protectionism, with major powers and smaller countries focusing on their own national interests. As a result, the world is facing a climate of uncertainty, wondering who will be the next power in global society. Obviously, superpowers in the traditional sense of the term, such as the United States, Russia, and China, would see their national power undermined by varying obstacles and challenges. In contrast, the new emerging superpower has not yet revealed its true identity and has not manifested its potential power as an outsider.
The economy, military, and technology are three key factors in defining a superpower, and so far, the United States has maintained its leadership position. Although China, the most competitive country, is striving to surpass the United States, it will not be easy to achieve superiority in all areas. Furthermore, powers such as Canada, Australia, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom are not interested in, nor do they have the capacity to lead global society. They are relatively satisfied with their national competitiveness based on economic interests and security contexts, without attempting to become a hegemonic power.
Russia has shaken the global landscape with its annexation of the Crimean Peninsula on March 18, 2014, and clashes with Ukraine over Donbass. The conflict continued for eight years until February 24, 2022, when it escalated into all-out war. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has therefore been going on for more than 11 years, since 2014. Russia seems to be repeating the 10-year war in Afghanistan, from 1979 to 1989, which disintegrated the Soviet Union and caused an economic crisis due to overwhelming military expenditures. At that time, the Soviet Union had ambitiously planned to expand the communist bloc to the Middle East and South Asia through Afghanistan.
Russia now aims to extend its leverage toward Eastern Europe through Ukraine. However, Russia has failed to completely defeat Ukraine, which is supported by the European Union. Russia, hit hard by EU sanctions, could exhaust itself in this war of attrition and enter into an economic crisis. Furthermore, there is a growing belief in the international community that Russia’s military capabilities may be overestimated and that sooner or later it will surrender to a prolonged war.
If Russia is ultimately defeated in the war in Ukraine without gaining anything, it could be excluded from the global power structure with a serious decline in its power.
Russia’s Venture in Eastern Europe
Ukraine and Belarus, which were once satellite countries of the Soviet Union, are a kind of bridge for exploring Russia’s geostrategic advantages towards Eastern Europe. However, Ukraine sought to join the EU and NATO as a member of the Western democratic world outside Russia’s control, although these initiatives prompted Russia to invade Ukraine in 2022. Belarus has also seen the emergence of movements that challenge the status quo.
On February 26, 2024, Sweden joined NATO as its 32nd member country, allowing NATO to completely surround Russia in the Baltic Sea, which has been Russia’s key strategic point. Antony Blinken, then US Secretary of State, immediately commented on Sweden’s accession to NATO as a crushing defeat for Putin’s strategy. Russia invaded Ukraine to prevent NATO’s eastward expansion, but a strong headwind hit the major countries that voluntarily joined.
Among the three major countries in Northern Europe, Norway became one of the 12 initial members in 1949, Finland joined in 2023, and Sweden, which was a neutral country, joined in 2024. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in the Baltic Sea also joined in 2004. They established a cooperative defense line to contain Kaliningrad, part of Russian territory that has supplied drones and deployed tactical nuclear weapons. If Georgia and Ukraine become NATO and EU member countries, Eastern Europe will be able to completely block the Russian border.
Russia has always viewed NATO expansion as an existential threat, which would be exacerbated by US missile defense systems in Poland and Romania. On July 11, 2024, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced the deployment of a new US air defense base in northern Poland. This base is designed to detect and intercept ballistic missile attacks as part of a broader NATO missile shield, now operational and available for the collective defense of the alliance. Its key elements include the two US Aegis Ashore sites in Poland and Romania, along with US Navy destroyers widely deployed in Ukraine and the Middle East.
In particular, the missile defense site in Poland is capable of defending against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, targeting missile attacks from Russia. Aegis Ashore is also a key component of NATO’s ballistic missile defense, Enhanced Operational Capability, which has 200 military personnel stationed at the two interception sites in Poland and Romania. By expanding the defensive capability that protects NATO’s European territories, populations, and forces, they improve the detection of a missile attack and use radar data to guide an interceptor to destroy the adversary’s offensive ballistic missiles.
NATO is succeeding in repelling Russia’s threat to Eastern Europe by supporting Ukraine. Russia is currently facing all the Baltic and Northern European countries that have voluntarily joined NATO. Russia currently faces all the countries of the Baltic Sea and Northern Europe that have voluntarily joined NATO. If Russia attacks a NATO country, all members will take part in the retaliatory war. Should Ukraine and Georgia join NATO, Russia would face a massive response that could lead to its complete defeat.
The Afghanistan War’s Phantom in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine is often compared to Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan. It has been almost four years since Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine began. Only North Korea has supported Russia with military troops. On the other hand, NATO countries are supplying Ukraine with superior military weapons, such as high-tech drones, while repelling Russia’s military attacks.
When Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022, it was the second time it had sent troops across the border with the excessive ambition of redefining the global order. In 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan with the strong belief that it could restore communist rule through military superiority. After 10 years, the war ended in a shameful retreat, an economic crisis, and political collapse that led to the Soviet Union’s ultimate defeat in the Cold War and collapse due to economic crisis. The global order was rebuilt by the democratic world, and Russia struggled for a long time to return to being a global power.
However, a few decades later, Russia dared to repeat the same feat with renewed ambition, erasing the shameful failure in Afghanistan. The war in Ukraine has become another test of Russia’s strategic resilience and geopolitical relevance based on military capability. Just as the Soviet Union’s misadventure in Afghanistan accelerated the collapse of the communist bloc, the war in Ukraine could become a similar turning point. Regardless of whether Russia wins the war, it could face a national crisis in its economy and military, which could jeopardize Putin’s leadership. Moreover, many countries no longer recognize Russia as a superpower in global society, viewing it as a threatening country. Ironically, Putin’s strategy to restore Russia’s control over the countries of the former Soviet Union has strengthened NATO’s cohesion.
Putin certainly views Ukraine not only as a geopolitical buffer, but also as the cornerstone of a reborn power. If he wins the war in Ukraine, he will realign global power and elevate Russia’s role as a counterweight to the United States. But the longer the war goes on, the more curious the comparisons with the Soviet experience in Afghanistan become. The war in Ukraine increasingly resembles the Soviet-Afghan conflict, with striking similarities in terms of miscalculations and long-term consequences. In both Afghanistan and Ukraine, the possibility of a quick victory was certainly confirmed by the underestimation of the strength and resilience of local resistance. Furthermore, the extent of external involvement and massive Western support for Ukraine was misjudged or largely ignored. The Afghan militia, the mujahideen, with massive military weapons and funding support from the US, managed to defeat the Soviet Union with a guerrilla strategy. NATO and the EU have also supported Ukraine with military and financial assistance.
The strategic errors and logistical challenges are similar to those that led to Russia’s tactical failures in Ukraine, where unprepared troops caused high casualties and slowed the advance. In particular, such protracted conflicts have turned into a grueling and endless war with no certainty of victory. Increased economic pressure would be the key factor in abandoning the war, which is consuming national competitiveness. Just as the Soviet economy collapsed under the weight of war, Russia is struggling hard with international sanctions, capital flight, and inflation, which are enormous symptoms not only of economic exhaustion but also of declining power.
Conversely, when considering victory, there are both similarities and differences between Afghanistan and Ukraine. The former geopolitical context saw Afghanistan become the backdrop to the Cold War, but multipolar competition involves shifting alliances with Ukraine in the New Cold War. Afghan resistance was originally tribal, while Ukraine continues to strengthen its powerful civic identity as a sovereign country. Furthermore, global involvement is leading to victory in Ukraine, while Afghanistan depended primarily on the US. Foreign support for Ukraine has been direct and unprecedented, including lethal aid, satellite intelligence, and billions in funding. In particular, drones, cyberattacks, and real-time information warfare have changed the battlefields in ways that the Soviet Union never experienced in the 1980s.
Russia’s Alliances and Decline in Power
In 2002, Russia established the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) with the aim of ensuring collective defense as the Eurasian equivalent of NATO. It is a military alliance comprising six post-Soviet countries: Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The CSTO guarantees protection to member countries from threats to their security, territory, or sovereignty, considering an attack on one member as an attack on all CSTO members and obliging collective defense, just like NATO.
However, even though Russia has faced a prolonged war in Ukraine, member countries do not rely on Russia for their military security. For example, despite being a member of the CSTO, Kazakhstan has clearly rejected Russia’s request to participate in the large-scale invasion of Ukraine. Furthermore, it has not officially recognized the Russian-backed republics of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. Armenia has also refused to host CSTO military exercises, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have been cautious in supporting Russia, regardless of whether it loses the war due to a lack of military resources. Meanwhile, 79% of the Belarusian population opposes fighting with Ukraine for Russia, waving flags with the words “Stand with Ukraine” during an anti-war demonstration.
Now, no CSTO member military supports Russia and, in fact, they criticized Russia’s military attacks and war crimes in Ukraine. The CSTO has completely failed to conduct the Russian-led war within the framework of the military alliance and security guarantee. All members fear that if Russia will succeed in defeating Ukraine, they themselves will be the next target, as Putin tends to recover the satellite countries of the Soviet Union. They could strengthen their alliance against Russia and prepare to defend themselves against further Russian attacks on them.
However, through the war in Ukraine, there is still a plausible scenario in which Russia’s alliance with authoritarian countries could strengthen. As the most enterprising countries in the reorganization of the global power structure, they are all belligerent towards the Western democratic world. China, North Korea, and even Iran have supported Russia as it was planning military attacks on neighboring countries.
First, there is China. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Putin had prioritized improving relations with China. China has been Russia’s main trading partner since 2009 and one of the main buyers of Russian hydrocarbons. When the war in Ukraine broke out, Western energy sanctions were immediately imposed against Russia, but China took advantage of importing cheap Russian oil. As a result, their ties have deepened and strengthened since Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Russian-Chinese partnership will remain a serious challenge for the US, Europe, and their Asian allies.
China can be considered as a facilitator of Putin’s war in Ukraine, as it has provided Russia with substantial economic, military, and technological aid, providing the financial means to continue the war. China has increased sales of machine tools, microelectronics, and important technologies for Russia to produce missiles, tanks, aircraft, and other weapons for use in Ukraine. Ninety percent of Russian microelectronics come from China, which supplies key components used in the Russian arsenal.
Second, North Korea is supporting Russia with military troops and weapons. As of November 2024, North Korea is the only country that has officially deployed troops to assist Russia in its war against Ukraine, following a mutual defense pact signed on June 20, 2024. Russia and North Korea also confirmed the deployment of troops in April 2025. According the deal North Korea is providing not only troops but also artillery and other weapons to Russia.
Despite UN sanctions, Russia continued to export coal, oil, and food to North Korea. In response, North Korea immediately supported Russia after the war began, particularly at the UN. North Korea supported the diplomatic recognition of the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories of Donetsk and Luhansk and repeatedly voted in favor of Russia’s position on Ukraine at the United Nations. With North Korea’s support, Russia voluntarily strengthened the military alliance by providing missile and space technology. This transactional partnership has elevated North Korea’s international standing to help Russia fight Ukraine.
Third, there is Iran, which supplies Russian weapons stocks. As an indispensable supporter of Russia, Iran has provided it with drones that have killed soldiers and civilians and destroyed infrastructure in Ukraine. Just like Russia, China, and North Korea, Iran also challenges the US-led international order and, moreover, tends to expand its Muslim power in the Middle East by expelling US military troops. Iran has emerged as one of Russia’s few remaining allies, even though Russia has become increasingly isolated since the 2022 invasion.
The extensive and developing relationship between Iran and Russia involves military equipment such as helicopters, fighter jets, and kamikaze drones. Countless drones have attacked Ukrainian cities, and Russia also manufactures Iranian drones on its own territory with the assistance of the Islamic enclave. In addition to economic and military ties with Russia, Iran supplies Russia with ballistic missiles, including over 200 short-range missiles. On January 27, 2025, Russia and Iran signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership” in the form of a military pact, in which they pledged to help each other in times of emergency related to security threats.
Power Decline and the Real Winner
With its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has sought to maintain its status as a superpower, but its growing inability to meet the fundamental standards of global leadership has led to a decline in its power. This ranges from economic strength and political coherence to international influence and institutional appeal, which Russia has already failed to maintain as a superpower.
Despite the collapse of the USSR, Russia inherited a huge nuclear arsenal, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, and a spatial dimension on the world’s largest territory. However, these factors may be superficial conditions for maintaining the external image of a superpower, unless there is substantial content commensurate with global leadership and value premises. At the same time, military power without economic prosperity turns into a risk that perpetuates the decline of national competitiveness. As a critical case, Russia’s global hegemony has withered with its military aggression in Ukraine, growing political isolation, and economic crisis. In reality, Russia seeks to maintain its influence through coercion rather than persuasion or appeal that military attacks to expand its superpower status are necessary or will not cease.
The Russian economy accounts for only 2% of global GDP, despite its vast natural resources, as over 40% of its exports come from oil and gas. Sanctions imposed after 2014 and radically strengthened in 2022 have driven away foreign investors, created a technology shortage, and triggered a massive outflow of intellectual capital. In 2023-2024, Russia spent up to a third of its budget on the war, worsening the economic situation of the population.
Superpower status implies the ability not only to wage war, but also to build peace. After the collapse of the USSR, Russia could have returned to being a superpower with oil and gas revenues without international sanctions. But right now, variable sanctions are stifling the Russian economy just as they did in Iraq after the Gulf War. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine is compromising Russia’s alliances and will accelerate the decline of its power. In this context, the Western democratic world, which is massively supporting Ukraine, could emerge as the real winner of this new Cold War.
Author: Sunny Lee – Founder and President at CGPS (Center for Global Peace and Security), and Director at IKUPD (Institute for Korea – U.S. Political Development), Washington DC. Sunny Lee is the author of 115 academic books in politics (original English and in German, French, Russian, Polish, Dutch, Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese). She is a bestseller writer not only in politics but also in literature on Amazon. Her recent book is titled: “The Influence on Humankind’s Peace through Korean Reunification: Creating new paradigm in social science by interdisciplinary research.”
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).