By Farshad Adel
On the afternoon of September 9, the Israeli military targeted Hamas leaders in Doha.
Israel’s attack on Doha was significant in several ways. Beyond marking the most critical moment in Arab-Israeli relations since the Six-Day War, it carried clear messages for Iran.
The attack demonstrated that the project of a new regional order is being pursued with speed and determination, without the previous considerations. No leniency can be expected from the U.S. and Israel.
The U.S. and Israel currently exhibit the highest level of coordination, working meaningfully to advance each other’s strategic plans. Undoubtedly, Iran’s case is at the top of their priorities, and they are handling it with utmost precision.
Thus, wishful thinking is a deadly poison for Tehran. The Islamic Republic’s leaders must prepare for the worst scenarios and avoid self-deception or optimism, as Iran now faces numerous negative possibilities.
Targeting Doha was a clear message to Qatar to refrain from gambling with its security and avoid overstepping its role.
This will significantly impact Qatar’s role in a potential future Israel-Iran conflict, likely reducing its interest in mediating such a critical issue.
In this context, the UAE’s channel may gain greater influence, which would mean a diplomatic setback for Iran.
Iran’s attack on the Al Udeid base in Qatar, and Qatar’s lack of response, undoubtedly undermined Qatar’s deterrence, facilitating Israel’s attack. This will certainly be noted by Qatar.
In this scenario, a repeat of Iran’s attacks on U.S. bases in Arab countries during a potential future conflict could lead to consequences influenced by this event, prompting these countries to respond to Iran to preserve their deterrence.
In this regard, Israel made an example of Qatar, increasing the risks of Iran’s actions against Arab states and providing them with legitimacy to retaliate.
Author: Farshad Adel – Secretary-General of The Iran-China Think Tank For Strategic Studies, Teheran, Iran.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy or views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Source: Aljazeera.