Once hailed as a game-changer for Pakistan’s economic future, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has entered a phase of troubling stagnation. What was envisioned as CPEC 2.0, a more mature phase of the corridor focusing on industrial cooperation, technological innovation, and regional integration – is slowly fading into disillusionment.
The symbolic promise of transformation that once electrified policy circles now lies under the growing weight of insecurity, political dysfunction, economic fragility, and eroding trust. In the public imagination, it is no longer a leap toward prosperity, but rather a cautionary tale of unfulfilled dreams – aptly captured in the grim symbolism of “CPEC 0.0”.
“CPEC 0.0” is not just a clever play on numbers; it represents regression – a return to square one. It encapsulates the perception that rather than advancing toward economic revitalization, Pakistan has slid back to a state of suspended development, where the glossy project reports and MoUs have not translated into sustained, real-world progress.
This regression is felt most acutely on the ground in regions like Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan, where instead of jobs and prosperity, people are facing violence, marginalization, and a growing sense of abandonment.
Recent developments only reinforce this sense of reversal. Just days ago, gunmen in Balochistan’s Kalat district ambushed a passenger bus, killing three people – one of several attacks in a province that continues to simmer with unrest. In March, the hijacking of the JaffarExpress by militants resulted in the deaths of several passengers and ignited widespread fear.
These incidents have seriously undermined Chinese confidence in Pakistan’s ability to provide secure investment environments, especially in areas central to the corridor’s vision. Meanwhile, protests in Gilgit-Baltistan over customs-related trade blockages with China shut down the vital Karakoram Highway – a powerful metaphor for the current state of CPEC itself: blocked, stalled, and directionless.
Traders demanded operational clarity and an end to bureaucratic delays that have crippled the region’s ability to benefit from the so-called economic corridor. In Gwadar, the state-of-the-art airport – once celebrated as a major leap forward in regional logistics – remains eerily unused, devoid of flights, passengers, or purpose.
Such examples lend weight to the symbolic downgrade to “CPEC 0.0” where the physical infrastructure exists, but the developmental momentum has vanished. Compounding the crisis is Pakistan’s increasingly unstable political landscape. The collapse of negotiations between the government and opposition parties, specifically PTI, reignited street protests and legislative gridlock.
The federal government’s recent decision to expand paramilitary force in anticipation of more political unrest only underscores how internal discord has become a serious barrier to economic planning and execution. In this context, long-term initiatives like CPEC become casualties of short-term power struggles.
Economically, the situation remains precarious. The rupee continues to lose value, foreign reserves are low, and the burden of external debt – much of it related to energy projects under the first phase of CPEC has strained Pakistan’s fiscal capacity. The IMF’s stringent conditions leave little room for developmental flexibility.
Meanwhile, China itself has become a more cautious investor, especially after facing debt defaults and political backlash in other Belt and Road countries. Its once-unquestioned strategic patience is giving way to risk-aversion and recalibration.
This grim backdrop makes the symbolism of “CPEC 0.0” all the more resonant. It evokes the image of a digital system rebooted to its default state – promising capabilities, but stuck in a startup loop. It is a metaphor for promises deferred, for infrastructure without functionality, and for national ambition hobbled by institutional failure.
Nevertheless, all is not lost. The recent trilateral understanding between Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan to explore the corridor’s extension into Central Asia signals that the vision is still alive – if only faintly. However, vision alone cannot drive development. It must be matched by stability, transparency, and inclusive governance. Communities must be engaged, not alienated. Provinces must be partners, not passive observers. Investments must be protected, not politicized.
The fate of CPEC now hinges less on geopolitics and more on Pakistan’s own resolve to reform its internal systems. If “CPEC 0.0” is to be upgraded again to a version worthy of its original ambition, Pakistan must address its internal contradictions: the lack of political stability, the bureaucratic inertia, the security lapses, corruption and the failure to translate mega-projects into grassroots impact.
CPEC will ultimately be remembered not for the number of kilometers of highways or megawatts of power it delivered, but for whether it was able to rewire Pakistan’s economic architecture in a meaningful, lasting way. If the current drift continues, it will stand as a monument to what could have been another chapter in the country’s long history of missed opportunities.
On the other hand, if Pakistan reorients its priorities and addresses the cracks in its institutional foundation, there may still be time to salvage the promise. The choice between CPEC 2.0 and CPEC 0.0 is not merely symbolic. It is a crossroads and Pakistan must decide whether it wants to build a future, or remain trapped in a cycle of beginnings with no ends.
Author: Mirza Abdul Aleem Baig – President of Strategic Science Advisory Council (SSAC) – Pakistan. He is an independent observer of global dynamics, with a deep interest in the intricate working of techno-geopolitics, exploring how science & technology, international relations, foreign policy and strategic alliances shape the emerging world order.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).