By Farshad Adel
US President Donald Trump met with leaders of the five Central Asian countries at the White House on Thursday 06, November.
Such a meeting followed the numerous contacts in recent months between regional leaders and the US president since Trump took office. From Arab leaders to Jolani, Aliyev, and Pashinyan, everyone has sought to position themselves as complementary players in the United States’ grand strategies within the framework of Trump’s New World Order. As a result of these political interactions, the United States has currently emerged as the most important player in the region.
The increasingly prominent role of the United States in regional processes is advancing under a comprehensive political, economic, and security initiative, which I refer to as the New Order project. Its primary objective is to prepare the region for long-term strategic partnership with the United States, stabilize the Middle East, and subsequently enable this region to play a prominent role in preserving America’s superpower monopoly for decades to come by containing China.
It is evident that under such circumstances, the Middle East and adjacent areas, such as Central Asia, will function as integral components of a coherent and interconnected whole. The foremost requirement for establishing regional stability is the formation of a form of economic integration and commercial cohesion among the countries of the region, which will define their roles within the American value chain. This, in turn, represents a significant step toward preventing the expansion of the Chinese value chain into the resource-rich and energy-abundant Middle East.
This matter holds particular significance for Iran, as the United States is expanding its political and economic influence across all areas adjacent to Iran. Given the comprehensive U.S. perspective on the region and considering the points raised regarding the necessity of economic integration to maintain stability, Iran will sooner or later need to join the New Order project and fulfill the role designated for it within the planned programs.
In fact, Iran may be the most critical element in this equation, as maintaining long-term regional stability requires a special emphasis on balancing regional powers. There is no doubt that, following the establishment of the New Order, the Arab and Turkish axes—pursuing strategic competitions with Israel—may intensify power struggles in the region and fall into the Thucydides Trap. Under such conditions, Israel will require a powerful regional ally, and one of the likely roles defined for Iran—with its vast territory, large population, and energy resources—in the New Order project is precisely this, to achieve regional balance.
Accordingly, an Iranian-Israeli axis opposing a Turkish-Arab axis would establish a form of power balance, and regional competitions—rather than manifesting in vessels of military and security tensions—would proceed through commercial and economic initiatives under the “American value chain.” Regional actors would thus become responsible states accountable to the United States, and one of the primary reasons for America’s insistence on dismantling militia groups in the region is precisely this objective.
This vision is now taking shape with the successive entry of actors from various regions, including Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Levant, and the Arab world. Regional powers such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel are each striving in the months leading to the establishment of this order to secure a greater share of future regional influence. Amid these developments, however, Iran’s dossier remains the most decisive file for completing the New Order project.
Author: Farshad Adel – Secretary-General of The Iran-China Think Tank For Strategic Studies, Teheran, Iran.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy or views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Source: White House