Rana Danish Nisar
With the threshold of the twenty-first century, today’s world is more globalized as compare to the previous century.
Inauguration of unbelievable and incredible technologies, advancement in lifestyles, and easy availability of all-needs of life, accessibility to space along with more state-to-art sophisticated munitions, 5th to 6th generations combat fighter jet-crafts and warfare techniques and new-fangled progressions; interestingly, has been changed the tang of the toady’s world.
Moving ahead, the working of robots as waiters in the restaurants, video calls on mobile phones from east to west of the world, 5G technology, tiny computers with unbelievable massive storage, and access to another plant of the world are remarkable and appreciable. Thereby, in the contemporary era, social scientists call the world the name of “Global Village”.
Today states as world entities are highly integrated along with shared values and mutual interests. Frankly, at the crossroads of this “Globalized World”, states’ integration with each other is based on their national interests, priorities, and their own FP goals. Accordingly, under the umbrella of their interests, the state takes decisions, mold their incorporations with other states, and adopts a certain course of action. Often, states’ right decisions call harmony for the world while their wrong decisions make catastrophic noise for the world and innocent humanity.
History has witnessed that some wrong decisions indulge the entire world in two destructive World Wars with the output of massive destruction and nothing else. The obsession with being powerful and ruled over the others can be seen in the DNA of the state. The realistic school of thoughts argued that man is selfish and power maximizer by nature and deny the word “innocent” for human. They induce that states are also like the man and want more power and ruled over the weak ones.
Defensive realists argued that yes, you (state) can follow the suiting of acquiring more and more power but it should be for defense owing to the anarchic structure of the world. They further argued that your wisdom of acquiring more power should be defined with the meaning of defensive. They valid their views regarding maximization of states’ power with the argument that in the time of emergency if any state call 911 (emergency call number), no one will pick up the call and your defensive power will give you strength and survival muscles.
Moreover, on the contrary, offensive realism argued that stats should maximize their power until leads to hegemony and it is the best way of survival in this anarchic world. In fact, in the nutshell, the lust for more “power” is inherited in the state. To maximize their power, ruled over the world, history has a lot of literature. Sometimes this literature is written by the “Victors” with “Ink” but usually they used the “blood” of “Losers”. In the old age, the techniques of lancers to used “halberd”, “swords” and “Knives” during the war were remarkable which hit the in-front adversary brutally.
With the passage of time and evolution in warfare techniques; halberd, swords, and knives have been replaced by guns and rifles. Crawling ahead, in the mid of the previous century, the major powers shocked the world while introducing a new weapon to kill, a threat of deterring the adversary named “Nuclear Bomb”. Till now, the world remembers the holocaust of this “nuclear Bomb” and the year of 1945. Soon after some years of the demise of World War II, the inauguration of the “Atom For peace” policy was the first attempt to draw the attraction of the world towards peaceful use of “nuclear energy” rather than the use of nuclear energy as a weapon to destroy others. It was the first step to introduce the world that the word “nuclear” can be used for energy.
Likewise, other states, the newly born sub-continent state named “India” after the long political struggle from 1857 to 1947 was also the crew member of the “Atom for peace” nuclear aero-plane. In the year of 1974, India decided to take-off its own “nuclear aero-plane” with nuclear weapons “have” state crown. India conducted its nuclear explosion in the year 1974 with the code of “Smiling Buddha” and the new arm-race in the context of nuclear is started in South Asia.
Since its inception, Pakistan had security threats vis-à-vis its eastern border state which was further augmented after the Indian nuclear explosion of 1974. From 1947 to till surgical strikes of India against Pakistan in 2019, Pakistan has traditional security threats vis-à-vis India. So, in the year 1998, to ensure Pakistan’s survival, soon after the Indian Nuclear tests named “Pokhran-II, Pakistan conducted its first nuclear test and enlisted its name in the list of nuclear “have” state. Interestingly, Pakistan’s journey towards the nuclear state and wish to have “nuclear” weapons is the reciprocal action-reaction syndrome of Indian nuclear weapons. According to science law, “every action has reaction”. Thus, Pakistan’s nuclear posture is the output of Indian nuclear postures and continually military modernization.
Moreover, the geo-strategic and geo-political location of South Asia is more important as compared to other regions of the world. In the vicinities of South Asia, there is a chain of nuclear “have” states i.e. Russia, Peaceful China, India, Pakistan, N. Korea, and the most possibility of Iran. Any unwilling incident in South Asia can call the destruction of the Globe. Apart from other entities of South Asia, Owing to their traditional rivalry, Pakistan and India are the most important actors in South Asia with nuclear “have” weapons. Increasing one’s power can undermine the security of other ones and push the actor to take befitting steps to ensure security or survival and these steps or options can be more catastrophic.
After the inauguration of NSSP-2004 among India and the USA, Pakistan has more philosophical reservations regarding this juxtaposition between them. After the “Civil-nuclear” deal and getting “NSG” waivers, the “qualitatively and quantitatively” growth of nuclear arsenals in the Indian briefcase is remarkable. Globally, states are shrinking their nuclear stockpiles but on the contrary, India is increasing its nuclear arsenals. According to the experts, India is the fastest nuclear-growing country in the world. Recently, India has been decided to build a top-secret nuclear city at the location of “Karnataka”. The following table and figure can show the Indian nuclear capable missiles list and range:
Table 1
Moreover, after getting the membership in MTCR, WA and AG, and the USA exceptional care, the Indian BMDs power has been increased. From the 7th of September 2020 to the 20th of November 2020, India has been conducted the tests of fifteen cruises, hypersonic, supersonic missiles which shows the Indian obsession with military modernization and dream of acquiring hegemony. Reciprocally, it would disturb the strategic stability of South Asia.
The foremost factors behind the continued growth of Indian BMDs power are the India-USA civil-nuclear agreement 2005, NSG waivers-2008, Membership of MTCR, AG, WA, and removing sanctions from DRDO and ISRO by the USA. Most recently, India has been conducted a test of its hypersonic cruise missile on the 7th of September 2020. This technology will boost-up Indian missiles striking power and have serious impacts on its vicinities particularly Pakistan. It will boost-up Indian first-strike capability against Pakistan and can hit Pakistan’s strategic assets because the hypersonic missiles are the fastest and unpredictable.
On the response or countermeasures, Pakistan follows full spectrum deterrence along with MRBM missiles named “Ababeel” with multiple independent target version. Moreover, Pakistan has SLCM missiles named “Babur” to counter growing Indian offensive postures. To counter, Indian hypersonic missiles, Pakistan can follow the Chinese-based Ramjet C-802 cruise missiles which is likely a breakthrough for Pakistan’s missiles deterrence. The following table can show the Pakistan missiles deterrence strength;
Table 2
Summarily, Pakistan and India are two main players or rivals of the region of Southern Asia and the peace of the region is directly or indirectly associated with them. Their ongoing tit-for-tat and action-reactions wisdom can call the catastrophic for the globe. Any unwilling pity incident can put the entire region and globe in the disastrous. Both states should follow the CBMs and try to minimize the distrust level. Besides, the major powers i.e. the USA, Russia, and peaceful China should play their imperative role to minimize the cynicism among India and Pakistan and avoid their de-hyphen policies while treating India and Pakistan. Otherwise, there is a massive threat of mass “nuclear assassination” in the region of South Asia.
Rana Danish Nisar The author is a PhD (International Relations) Student at the School of Politics and International Studies (SPIS). He holds Mphil in (International Relations), Masters in (Pakistan Studies), and Masters in (International Relations) degrees. He won acceptance Harvard Project for Asian and International Relations HPAIR (USA), 2017. His research interests are broadly in South Asian Affairs, South Asia Geo-Politics, India-Pakistan Relations, South Asian Nuclear Politics, US and South Asia, Indian Ocean, Security studies, South Asian developments studies.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy or views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Credit: Wikicommons – Pakistan’s Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR)