World Geostrategic Insights interviews Saud Al-Sharafat on threats to Jordan’s security from tensions between pro-Iranian groups and U.S. forces on the eastern border, the ongoing conflict in Gaza, Israel’s response to Hamas, and U.S. strategy in the Middle East
Dr. Saud Al-Sharafat, Phd, is a Brigadier-General (Ret), Jordanian General Intelligence Directorate (GID). Member of the National Policy Council (NPC), Jordan, 2012-2015. He is the founder and director of the “Shorufat Center for Globalization and Terrorism Studies”, Amman. His research interests focus on globalization, terrorism, Intelligence Analysis, Securitization, and Jordanian affairs
Q1 – Three U.S. servicemen were killed and several wounded in a drone attack on U.S. forces stationed in northeast Jordan in late January. This marks the first time U.S. soldiers have been killed in the Middle East since the beginning of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Although Iran has denied any involvement, the United States has accused pro-Iranian groups of being behind the attack and responded by striking targets associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in various locations in Iraq and Syria. Given that Jordan’s eastern borders are actually controlled by armed groups loyal to Iran, what does this event mean for Jordan’s security? Could Jordan become a new battleground in U.S.-Iranian tensions? Are we facing an escalation of tension and violence in the region? What is Iran’s game and goals in the region?
A1- This operation (Tower 22 base) in Jordan was a warning bell of the potentially serious threat to future national security from the eastern border.
There is no doubt that such a dangerous operation has alerted Jordan’s security services to the scenario of turning Jordan’s eastern border into a low-tension battlefield between pro-Iranian Iraqi Shiite groups and US forces in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan.
Iran’s game in the region lies in its quest to keep the danger away from its borders as much as possible by opening battlefields of various forms against the United States and its allies to occupy it and distract its focus from the war on more than one front by igniting the region in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and the occupied territories in Palestine and Yemen.
Especially since the intentions of the regime in Iran are known and are no secret to anyone seeking to open more battlefields against America under the pretext of supporting Hamas in Gaza. Therefore, it will not hesitate to escalate in the future through all sides. But it now seems to be more preoccupied with the Hezbollah front in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Especially after America responded violently to the Islamic resistance in Iraq after the Tower 22 base operation.
Q2 – A historical, fundamental and problematic element for the stability of the Jordanian state has always been the Palestinian issue, as it is crucial for Jordan to have good relations with both Israel and the Palestinians. How does the current conflict in Gaza affect Jordan’s security and challenge its foreign policy? Is this war different from previous crises? Could it affect Jordan’s security relationship with the United States? Could the Gaza war represent a turning point in Jordan-Israel relations? How does Jordan hope the current crisis in Gaza and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in general will be resolved?
A2- To be sure, the war in Gaza has negatively affected Jordan’s national security and this risk is expected to increase if the war continues for a longer period. The danger to Jordan is of two types: internal, represented by the reality of the demographic situation in Jordan, with the presence of a large percentage of Jordanian citizens of Palestinian origin, who continuously pressure the state and the political decision-maker to take a hardline, and sometimes extremist positions against Israel, even though he has been linked to a peace treaty with it for three decades (October 27, 1994).
Today, mass demonstrations and the political opposition, led by the Islamic Movement, have been taking place since the beginning of the war in Gaza every Friday in the center of the capital Amman demanding the abolition of this treaty. no Rather, it is demanding the opening of the borders to fight Israel. This is seen by state institutions as an unrealistic claim aimed at spreading chaos and political turmoil and seeking populist political gains for the political opposition, especially the Muslim Brotherhood, which supports Hamas. Therefore, the state deals with this file with the utmost restraint and political wisdom.
As for the external danger, it is manifested in the threat of the Israeli extreme right, which has not ceased to exist, with an alternative homeland and the forcible expulsion of Palestinians to Jordan. This would be catastrophic for the regime’s structure, the state, and national security. Therefore, the Jordanian leadership views the seriousness of this scenario with great seriousness, sensitivity, and tension. However, I do not believe that this war will disrupt relations between Jordan and the United States, but rather increase Jordan’s dependence on the alliance with it. Nor will it disrupt the peace process between Jordan and Israel because both sides recognize the importance of peace and continued coordination. Jordan is betting on the time factor in Israel and the change of Netanyahu’s government with a less extreme government and America’s continued support to stop the war.
Q3 – Hamas spokesman Sami Abou Zahri said the death of the three soldiers “is a message to the U.S. administration” that “continued American-Zionist aggression in Gaza risks a regional explosion” with “the wrath of the entire Muslim world.” What is your opinion on Israel’s response to Gaza and the U.S. strategy in the Middle East? Is U.S. leadership in the region waning?
A3- I believe that Israel’s response to Hamas’s bloody operation has become exaggerated and far exceeds the impact of Hamas’s operation against Israel, regardless of its characterization. If the Hamas operation is a “terrorist attack” by a group of “non-state actors,” then what Israel is currently doing amounts to “state terrorism.”
The continuation of the war as we are witnessing today has certainly led to an increase in hatred against American policy under the pretext of its blind support for Israel, and to Israel losing a lot of its moral capital globally and a lot of feelings of hatred and revenge in the Arab world, especially in Jordan due to the presence of many Jordanians of Palestinian origin and the presence of the Muslim Brotherhood supporting Hamas. Unfortunately, the feelings of hatred and desire for revenge generated by the war will lead to generations of terrorists (Israeli and Palestinian) in the future, of which hatred, and the desire for revenge are the first engine.
Saud Al-Sharafat – Founder and director of the “Shorufat Center for Globalization and Terrorism Studies”.
Image Source: Jordan Armed Forces القوات المسلحة الاردنية