By Denis Korkodinov
No matter how the international community seeks to expel Iran from Syria, Teheran will decide when to leave. In addition, the Bashar Assad regime continues to appreciate Iranian assistance in the fight against the Syrian opposition and it is unlikely that Damascus will ask the Iranians to leave.
However, Tehran loses the support of its proxies, as a result of which it could significantly reduce its military potential in Syria.
Tehran relies on the Hezbollah as its Allied army in the region. The Hezbollah movement is actively present in Lebanon mainly at the expense of Iranian investments. However, the Iran financial assistance has recently been reduced by almost half, due to the effect of US sanctions. The wages of Hezbollah members were significantly curtailed, with the result that many militants lost their motivation to continue fighting in Syria on the side of Iran.
Also the overwhelming majority of Lebanese residents have a negative attitude towards Iran, believing that the Ayatollah regime occupied their country. However, Hezbollah systematically blocks any protest against Iran. But this creates a basis for intramuscular crisis between the central government and Hezbollah militants.
Ordinary Lebanese never supported the regime of Bashar AL-Assad. Moreover. They hate the Asadites for denying Lebanon’s state subjectivity, regarding the territory as part of “Greater Syria”. This state of affairs poses a threat to the Hezbollah movement, which is losing its credibility among the local population, and little by little among its militants that fight on the Syrian land, together with the Iran troops.
Thus, Tehran is gradually losing its main support in the Syrian theater of operations. It cannot motivate more the Hezbollah’s militants to continue to collaborate with the Iranian forces. And this can lead to the possibility that Iran could reduce the scope of its military presence in the region, until it will find a new ally.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).