By Eslam Abdelmagid Eid
Since 2011, the Middle East region has been experiencing an enormous amount of transformations that have had a great impact in changing the balance between regional and international influence in the region. The Middle East region in general is considered to be the main test bed for military influence and general military aid provided by regional and international powers.
Military force in general consists of the armed forces of the state with its multiple branches located on land, sea and air. The weapons can be conventional or unconventional, meanwhile the most important factor is obviously the combat competence of the forces, in addition to the relations of military cooperation, based on a defensive aspect, that binds the state to other countries, through military cooperation or alliances,. The military sub-components are represented by the military industries and other related industries, that also constitutes , at the same time, a resource of power and a fundamental pillar in support of the national economy.
The regional and international powers’ use of military force, contributed to the repetition of what is known as proxy wars in the region. Military power, although now no longer the only and most important factor of influence, still plays a vital and important role in this region, and is also a decisive factor in the self-determination of conflicts and disputes.
The study of the state of the military balance of the actors in the region is one of the relatively complex things, due to the difference in the nature of the countries of the region from others, in addition to the extent of bilateral strategic interests between the state and the regional or international actor alike.
The importance of military power lies as an important determinant of state power and its external influence, as it constitutes a key element in determining the fate of major collisions, as an important factor in determining the ability of the active state to harm or threaten to use violence, as one of the important trump cards on the negotiating table and bargaining.
So the nature of the tasks that are entrusted to the military force, which it carries out, in addition to the consequences of these tasks, make it without the slightest doubt the most prominent element of the state’s power, so the decline and deterioration of the state’s economic power may lead to its poverty, but the deterioration of its military power will inevitably lead to its downfall.
Regional powers active in the region and around the world are also multiplying, which constitutes a complexity in the network of actors in the region and raises an important question about the nature of future alliances between these forces and their potential impact on the state of the region. equilibrium.
The importance of analyzing
The importance of the study the issue stems from the identification of regional and international actors in the Middle East, to determine the extent of their role in the changes occurring on the scene, and to determine the role of the military force of the actors in influencing the state of balance of power in the region.
This research will analyze the following questions:
Who are the powerful actors in the Middle East? What is the nature of the changes in the region after 2011?
What is the nature of the balance between the forces active in the region?
What is the role of military force in imposing the influence of actors in the region?
What is the future of the state of equilibrium in the Middle East?
Power shifts in the Middle East after 2011
The year 2011 was, of course, the beginning of a great transformation in the Middle East region. The regional and international equations in the region changed with the emergence of the huge role of two regional powers (Turkey and Iran), the decline of the influence of other powers, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and the fall of countries such as Iraq, Syria and Libya.
Furthermore, a new transformation appeared at the level of the international powers active in the region, that was witnessing the unilateral influence of the United States of America since the 1990s,, due the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now Moscow appears again on the scene as the rightful heir to the former Soviet Union, and even became the main actor in Syria, playing as well a relatively straightforward role in Libya, also with the presence of elements of the Russian Wagner company to train the forces of the Libyan National Army Libyan (Haftar’s Forces).
As a result, the region is currently exposed to many threats:
– The increaseof the presence of terrorist organizations in the region and the remarkable development of their objectives from the simple attempt to influence the political decision of the regimes in power, to the control on the ground and the announcement of new entities in the form of states. Indeed, these elements have also established relations with some countries in the region, to facilitate their movements and to help them logistical, and one of the most important of these countries is Turkey. The role of these groups was not limited to this, but their influence extended beyond borders, as happened when The Jerusalem Organization in Sinai and the Boko Haram Organization in Nigeria, swore allegiance to Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi ( the successor of the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant).
– Many countries in the region, especially Arab countries, such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya, have transformed from fragile states to models of failed states, according to annual reports issued by the United Nations Peace Facility, in cooperation with “Foreign Policy” magazine, from 2011 until 2016.
– Increase regional interventions in the Middle East, due to the internal division in these countries and the prevalenceof the interests of foreign states over the national interests of the state. For example, we find a Turkish presence in a number of countries in the region, such as Iraq, Syria and Libya, and this presence is based on supporting entities that owe allegiance to Ankara, such as the armed opposition groups in Syria, particularly those in Idlib, and the government of national accord in Libya, in the capital (Tripoli), in order to contain Turkey’s enemies in the Mediterranean (Egypt, Greece and Cyprus) and cut the way to their gas deals. The region is also seeing a notable Iranian foray. Relatively older than the Turkish presence, that of Iran relies on its delegates in the region to carry out its interests more than Turkey. In Iraq, we find armed Shiite militias, led by the Popular Mobilization Militia and its affiliated factions, all subject to the Iranian decision. It can exert great pressure on decision-making in Baghdad, and in Yemen, where Iran represents the prime supporter of the Houthi factions, which since 2014 controls the capital Sanaa. In Lebanon, Iran, since the Lebanese civil war, has managed the establishment of one of its most prominent agents in the region: the militia Hezbollah, which was primarily a partner of the Lebanese government, and even owned like a veto on government decisions. In Syria, for decades, Tehran had links and it still has relationship with the Assad family, for many reasons, including the hostility to the Iraqi Ba’ath regime, as well as the common hostility to the United States and its ally Israel. From the start of demonstrations in Syria in 2011, Tehran has established a military presence on the ground, both with its Revolutionary Guard advisors and loyal local factions, and this was done in coordination with Moscow, the biggest player in the Syrian arena.
– The decline of the role of the major Arab powers (Egypt and Saudi Arabia). Since 2011, Egypt has begun to face major challenges that threaten its national security, coinciding with the events of January 25 and the subsequent coming to power of the Muslim Brotherhood in 2012, during which the country was subjected to a violent shock at all levels, and still suffers from it until now.However the absence of the Egyptian pivotal role is not a recent event, but dates back to the signing of the Camp David Treaty in 1979, which led to the isolation of Egypt from its Arab regional dimension, and the collapse of the nationalist ideology, which represented the intellectual arm of Egyptian influence in the region. But, what is considered relatively recent is the penetration of regional and international forces into the Egyptian strategic depth after 2011, through NATO’s intervention in Libya in 2011, and the overthrow of the Gaddafi regime, coinciding with the so-called Arab Spring, and the current Turkish influence in Libya, In addition to its penetration into the depths of Syria,. Such events clearly demonstrated the extent of the weakness and retreat of Egypt’s position as a leading regional power, and its transformation into a country of little influence. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has been among the countries that have taken a good spot, particularly after the decline of the regional role of Egypt, in the seventies of the last century, due to the enormous financial capabilities of the Gulf The Saudi role began to increase, also with the support provided to extremist Salafist groups in many Arab countries,, and particularly in Syria and Iraq. The fact that Saudi plans would have been realized only in absence of international and regional interventions demonstrated the inability of financial support alone to produce changes. So the Saudis role took another turn through an explicit in military intervention in Yemen, in the so-called Operation Decisive Storm. But the Saudi intervention in Yemen caused severe damage to Saudi Arabia and significantly affected its regional role. which has been largely declined in favor of other regional powers, such as Iran and Turkey, the biggest ally of Qatar, besieged by Saudi Arabia and its allies United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt.
Military power as a determinant of the state of equilibrium in the Middle East
In contemporary times, in general, the concept of state power is no longer limited to military power alone. Sometimes, there is a greater role for another component of hard power, which is the economic power, represented in its subsidies. economic effects on some countries, and threat of economic sanctions from states. At the top of these states there is the United States of America.
On the other hand, soft power plays a very influential role, especially with the current technological development and the huge number of different international media, in the light of a global system open specifically to the Western culture and based on the globalization imposed unilaterally by the United States.
Despite this, the military force has not lost its great ability to change the course of crises in favor of some parties, nor has it lost its importance as a basic element and trump card in the negotiation process between the conflicting parties, especially if the the issue is linked to one of the most troubled regions in the world, if not the largest, which is the Middle East.
The role of the forces active in the region and the component of their military might can be reviewed through:
Iran
Iran relies heavily on its foreign strategy and in the role that the Revolutionary Guard plays in the region, recruiting its agents, that are usually quasi-governmental entities that have some kind of legitimacy, which facilitates the process of penetration of the countries concerned, undermining the concept of E the exercise of state sovereignty and eliminating its institutional sense. The resources, necessary for the survival of their social and political foundations, are obtained through illegal activities which are usually facilitated and supported by Iran. In many cases, the most profitable, such as in Lebanon and in the border areas with Iraq, is the production and smuggling of drugs.
In countries where Iran has influence in the region, especially in the Quartet (Lebanon-Iraq-Syria-Yemen), Iran provides support in three of them, namely Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, to quasi-governmental bodies with the aim to increase its influence at the expense of other regional powers, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile in Iraq Tehran directly contributed to the formation of the Badr Organization, in 1982, during the Iran-Iraq war, and then, afterwards the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, the opportunity presented for the emergence of movements inspired from the ideas of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, such as the Dawa Party and the Sadr movement, which facilitated the mission of Teheran to control the decision-making process in Iraq. While in Syria, Iran supports the fragile Assad regime, given the old relations between Tehran and Damascus, as well as the presence of Iran-affiliated militias in the Syrian arena, like the Lebanese Hezbollah , and the Iraqi Shiite militias affiliated with the People’s Mobilization Organization.
As for Yemen, Iran provides support to the Houthis, a faction whose legitimacy is not recognized internationally, and therefore aims to curtail Saudi Arabia and limit its influence in Yemen, due to the United Nations ban to sell weapons to the Houthis, which strengthens their dependence to Iran and its military arm in the region: the Revolutionary Guard.
How Iran use military force in the region:
In most cases, Iran is not present with a own military force, it only sends the leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, to the countries of the region, to provide logistical support to its local agents and leaders, who are allowed to act independently within the broader framework of pursuing the principles of the Islamic Revolution.
However, the Iranian influence in the region is more based on military aid, both financially and on arms exports. According to the Congressional Research Agency Iran provides about $ 700 million annually to Hezbollah in economic aid and total military, and on the other hand Iran supplied Hezbollah with air defense missile systems, which contributed greatly to Hezbollah’s military gains against Israel in 2006.
Reports indicate that Iran provides the Assad regime in Syria with about $ 6 billion annually, some evidence indicates that support provided to Iranian-backed Shiite militias and parties in Iraq since 2014 has reached about $ 1 billion. dollars a year, while Iranian support for the Houthis in Yemen is made in violation of the international resolution no. 2216 of the Security Council, which makes the issue of obtaining reliable numbers extremely difficult. In any case Iranian contributions to the Houthis’ ballistic missile capabilities allowed them to threaten Riyadh and Jeddah from the outskirts of Sana’a . another example of how Iran uses its relatively simple capabilities , compared to the capabilities of other powers, in order to increase its influence. As for the Iranian militias, present in Iraq with Katyusha ammunition and simple missile capabilities, they have imposed a strategic pressure on the United States to end its military occupation of Iraq, thus achieving a strategic gain against the United States and at the at the same time contributing to the reduction of state sovereignty in Iraq.
Russia
In the Middle East region, Russians have a long history in terms of military presence during the era of the Soviet Union. Soviet military advisers were present in abundance particularly in the Egypt of Abdel Nasser and in Syria of al-Assad, in addition to the military support and arms supplies provided to these countries.
With the return of the Russia of Vladimir Putin on the map of the great powers of the world, Moscow has once again turned its gaze to the Middle East, precisely in the outbreak of the crisis in Syria and its military intervention in late 2015. The Russian military presence in Syria was based at the beginning only to the Air Force, as was declared by Putin in front of the Council of the Russian Federation, where he said: “First, we will only support the Syrian army in its legitimate fight against terrorist organizations in particular … and secondly, this support will only be air without participation in ground operations. “The Russian air strikes were in fact turned the table of conflict in favor of the regime in a short period, and then Russia began to be present on the ground through its advisers military. The Syrian regime granted Moscow the right to have several military bases in the country, on top of which is the Hmeimim air base, in the city of Latakia. Moscow has been using it since 2015, In addition to the naval base of Tartus , which is the only Russian base in the Mediterranean. It was reused by Moscow as part of an agreement signed in 2017, which provides for the strengthening of the Russian military presence via air and sea in Syria. On May of this year Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree instructing Russian defense and foreign ministers to start talks with the Syrian side regarding the handover of more facilities to Russian military personnel and the expansion of their naval access to Syria.
As for Libya, Russia was one of the countries that categorically rejected NATO’s intervention. Subsequently it gave formal support to the reconciliation government and the peace plan announced by the United Nations, but Moscow soon started to clearly show its true stance on the crisis in Libya, with its intention to support the Libyan National Army and its leader, Khalifa Haftar, Russia challenged the United Nations resolution, issued in March 2019, which asked Haftar to stop his attack on Tripoli. Three days later, Haftar visited Moscow that provided him the support of some experts from the Wagner private group and another Kremlin company called RSB, that undertook the mission of training and arming the forces of the Libyan National Army.
From the above, is evident that the most important pillars on which Moscow is based, as regards the use of military force in the region, is clearly depending on being a great source of weapons. In the market of weapons, Russia ranks second in the world after the United States, but the arms market is an important factor in the Russian economy, and its importance for Russians far more than for America, because the Russian economy is small compared to the U.S., which is ten times the Russian economy.
Furthermore, Moscow relies on its relations with elite government-based regimes, not on institutional systems that do not exist in the region.
United States
The American military presence in the Middle East is undoubtedly the largest and most far-reaching, as American military bases are densely spread in the region, precisely in the Arab states of the Gulf, where the American forces launched their attacks to invade Iraq in 2003. This can be considered a conclusive evidence of Washington’s interest in the Middle East region, considering the large US base located in the Gulf region, specifically the Al Udeid base in Qatar, headquarters of the United States Central Command, as well as the military bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Syria and Bahrain, and the US military missions in Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
Washington took advantage of the tremendous panic in the Gulf Arab states from Iran’s continued export of Islamic revolution ideas, for placing American military bases and missions in most countries in the region. But Washington is also exploiting this fear to promote and sell American weapons to these countries for exorbitant sums. From 2008 to 2011, the US won $ 45 billion from arms transfers to Saudi Arabia alone, followed by another $ 17 billion from 2011 to 2015. Also, in May 2017, Saudi Arabia signed with Washington a massive arms purchase agreement worth $ 110 billion, including a memoranda of intent with potential arms sales of $ 84.8 billion.
But in recent times, the America public opinion made pressure for the withdraw of the American forces present in the region, and President Trump promised to do. Indeed America has started to implement this plan gradually, albeit relatively slowly, in Iraq Washington handed over the Iraqi base in al-Taji, north of Baghdad, to the military last August, in addition to the bases of al-Qaim and al-Qayyarah early this year, and some believe these operations are American maneuvers to lift popular pressure on them, and an opportunity to redeploy back to Iraq, to safer areas and be immune to missiles Iraqi factions loyal to Iran , particularly in areas close to the capital, Baghdad.
In Syria, Trump had already promised a complete withdrawal of US forces present there, particularly in northern Syria, but this coincided with Ankara’s announcement to start its military campaign there, which caused a stir in political circles. So, the US Administration overturned his decision again at the end of 2019 and decided not to withdraw completely, in order not to leave the Syrian arena in full Russian control and not to lose the US allies in Syria, which are the Kurds, and their armed organization known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Another important reason is that the American forces are concentrated close to oil and gas areas, and Washington fears that the Assad regime and its Russian ally will take their control.
Turkey
Turkey is currently one of the important parts on the Middle East power map, since the Justice and Development Party came to power in 2002 with the ambition to reposition Turkey as an effective regional power in the region. Gradually, President Erdoan was able to extend his influence to all corridors of power in the country.
The Turkish intervention at the start of events in 2011 did not take the form of explicit military intervention, but rather of material and logistical support and military training, for armed opposition groups, and some terrorist groups in Syria, including the ‘ISIS. Allegations centered on President Erdogan’s son-in-law and famous businessman Berat Albayrak, for suspected oil deals with ISIS, in collaboration with the Gulf states of Saudi Arabia and Qatar. At first, like everyone else, Turkey believed that the fall of the Assad regime was only a matter of time,
But with the Russian intervention in Syria, the Turkish position has changed dramatically. After the alliance with Saudi Arabia, Ankara moved to reach an agreement with the two strongest powers on the ground, namely Russia and Iran, and took the opportunity of the Damascus regime’s weakness to intervene militarily in northern Syria, under the pretext of protecting its borders from what he called Kurdish terrorist groups. It was in August 24, 2016 that Ankara launched the Operation Euphrates Shield. A subsequent arrangements regarding the definition of safe zones in northeastern Syria was signed with Russia in May 2017.
In Libya, Erdogan used a strategy that differs from the previous strategy in Syria. In fact, Libya is different from Syria due the fact that it doesn’t fall within the geographical vicinity of Turkey, which makes direct military intervention difficult, with reference to the transfer of military personnel and vehicles. So Ankara has decided to enter on the so-called war by proxy. In order to support its ally in Libya (the Government of National Accord), Turkey has provided it with financial and military aid. Ankara has also sent Syrian mercenaries to fight with the Government of National Accord against the Libyan National Army led by Khalifa Haftar. There are may reasons behind the Turkey’s policy in Libya, including the pressures by the European Union, on the one hand, and three Mediterranean countries (Egypt, Greece and Cyprus), on the other, against the Turkey’s stand about the demarcation of maritime borders, as well as the economic ambitions represented in the control of oil and natural gas and fields in Libya, that Ankara has begun to implement through an agreement with the government of a national accord that gives Ankara the right to explore for oil in Libyan territorial waters.
Conclusion
The Middle East is currently witnessing a state of international polarization of regional powers in the region, in the form of two main parts, namely: 1- The American alliance with the Arab states of the Gulf, on top of them Saudi Arabia. This alliance is based on the fundamental pillar to limit Iranian influence in the region. 2- A tripartite alliance that includes Russia, Iran and Turkey. Despite the divergent contradictions between the three parties, yet the strong Russian influence in Syria has forced Iran and Turkey to open lines of communication with Moscow, in spite of the latter being a member of anti-Moscow Alliance, which is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
The roles of regional powers in the Middle East, especially Iran and Turkey, are based on the effectiveness of the movement of its agents and weapons in the region, and this is more true of Iran, as its agents play an important role in politics. decisions in several countries, especially Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, while Turkey relies heavily on financial and military support to its ally in Libya (the government of national accord) to achieve geopolitical interests.
The current regional crises, in particular the Syrian and Libyan crisis, represent a stage for reshaping a new Middle East and their consequences will determine the future disposition of the forces active in the region and will also affect the regional balance. Russia is the biggest player in Syria and through its military presence there, it aspires to restore its influence and position as a great power. Meanwhile in Libya, Turkey has now become a major player in the conflict, and aspires to reach through Libya a new strategic depth, in order to tighten the screws on Egypt, and use the Libyan charter to put pressure. on Europeans and strengthen its presence in Syria and Iraq.
A growing military role is played by armed groups considered international non-state actors, such as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Houthi group in Yemen. Their importance is due to the nature of the actions carried out by these groups, aimed at destabilizing the countries of the region, also by virtue of the relations that bind some of these organizations to certain states, which provide them with financial and ideological support and provide them with weapons.
Although the American military presence in the Middle East is now the largest and most extensive in the region, maintaining great political influence over most countries within it, the current American role has retreated far from what it was after the fall of the Soviet Union, in the nineties of the last century. Russia has now regained an important role in the region. In addition, regional powers have emerged, such as Iran and Turkey, acting outside the mantle of the unipolar world order, which was represented by Washington, and currently appears to have largely vanished.
Image Credit: AP/Baderkhan Ahmad