By Denis Korkodinov
Despite the significant reduction of its influence, as a result of the growth of the protest movement, the government of Baghdad, built on the ruins of the regime of Saddam Hussein, will fight to its last supporter. However, according to the American scenario, the resistance of the ruling regime in Iraq will be inconclusive. Iraq is going through the last days before the civil war.
The social unrest that swept Iraq indicates that the state is facing a serious problem similar to the one in 2003. But the degree of danger of ISIS was in many ways inferior to the actual protest movement for the existing political regime.
Iraqi protesters are of the opinion that, compared to the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein, the current government is even more corrupt. Therefore, if the government is overthrown, it is unlikely that participants in mass demonstrations will regret it. However, the main problem is what will happen next.
The government of official Baghdad, according to the leaders of the protest movement, during its activities was not able to ensure stability in society and establish an effective dialogue with international players. However, the most important thing is that the Iraqi state continues to be perceived by many officials as a tool for their own enrichment, which is extremely painful for the ordinary population.
As a consequence of this, the people took to the streets, demanding that the government respect their rights and civil liberties. But instead of listening to the voice of protesters, Baghdad even more excited people, killing more than 300 protesters and injuring more than 10,000 people.
The government of Adil Abdul-Mahdi was frightened to lose influence in the state, and therefore he went on provocations, through his public statements and escalation of the conflict, giving people a reason to display aggression.
External players took advantage of the situation. Armed people appeared among the protesters, who attack law enforcement forces and provoke them to use firearms. Currently, the Iraqi secret services have not yet been able to identify the identities of armed provocateurs. But everything indicates that these people are US agents. In confirmation of this, sources report that on November 11, 2019, the US ambassador to Iraq, Matthew Tueller, made a secret visit to Anbar province.
During this visit, an American diplomat met in the city of Al-Habbaniya with Sunni volunteers undergoing military training in the camps created in late October 2019 to organize the Iraqi revolution. Currently, more than 2,000 pro-American militants are concentrated in a camp in the vicinity of Al-Khabbaniyah. According to available information, social unrest in the Sunni cities of Iraq will erupt very soon. According to sources, the first unrest may occur in Mosul, where preparations began in this direction a few days ago.
It is worth noting that a number of Iraqi law enforcement agencies, including the Counter-Terrorism Service, the police and some army units, have come together with the protesters and assist them, including by providing weapons and secret information about the movements of the first persons of the state, their financial assets and connections in the international arena. This indicates that an extremely dangerous situation has actually developed in Iraq, when even an insignificant reason could be a signal for a large-scale civil war.
Meanwhile, the Iraqi government does not intend to give up. So, it attracted the Iranian army and the Syrian and Lebanese armed groups affiliated with Iran to participate in the process of suppressing protests.
However, the situation in Iraq is such that the state is in a very vulnerable position. If the protesters intend to completely dismantle the existing political regime, which has exhausted the limit of popular confidence, then representatives of the current government are trying to maintain their positions, believing that they have the strength to suppress the protest.
And since now the representatives of the national political establishment are in a state of choice not only between peace and revolution, but also between life and death, they are ready to fight in order to try to get the maximum benefit from the last days before the next civil war.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)