By: Dr. Mohammad Salami
The defeat of the Afghan government and the capture of Kabul by the Taliban caused a wave of concern for the international community about Afghanistan’s future and terrorist activities.
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the failure of the 20-year-old US policies in this country, caused concern in the region, especially in Saudi Arabia and Israel. These two countries fear the weakening of the US in the area and have been angered by the rapid U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia fears a power vacuum in Afghanistan, the Iranian influence in the country, and the risk of the spreading of political Islam to Saudi citizens. Israel is also dissatisfied with the weakening of the US commitment in the region, because Tel Aviv knows that from now on it will have to bear the brunt of the struggle against the threatening countries of Israel and the entire region.
Israel and Saudi Arabia have common concerns toward the Taliban, and the Islamist ties and activities of terrorist groups on Afghan soil. Saudi Arabia is more vulnerable to the Taliban than Israel because of its recognition and close ties to the Taliban 1.0 and may be encouraged to seek Israeli support to confront the Taliban. The main question then is whether Afghanistan can facilitate Saudi-Israeli cooperation, and why does Saudi Arabia need Israeli support in Afghanistan?
The inevitable relations between Saudi Arabia and the Taliban
Saudi Arabia has historical ties with Afghanistan, and the Taliban have played a role. Saudi Arabia, along with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Pakistan, were the only countries to recognize the Taliban in 1996-2001. Following the 9/11 attacks, Saudi Arabia severed ties with the Taliban.
Although Saudi Arabia has not had any formal relations with the Taliban since severing ties, it has had various informal interactions with them over the past 20 years and will eventually be forced to readmit them again. For three religious, political, and ideological reasons, Saudi Arabia cannot ignore the future of Afghanistan under Taliban rule.
Saudi Arabia has historical ties to Afghanistan, and the Taliban played a role. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Pakistan, were the only countries to recognize the Taliban in 1996-2001. Only after the 9/11 attacks Saudi Arabia has cut the official ties with the Taliban.
But even though Saudi Arabia has not had formal relations with the Taliban since the severing of ties, it has maintained various informal interactions with them over the past 20 years and will eventually be forced again to recognize and officially readmit them. For religious, political, and ideological reasons, Saudi Arabia cannot ignore the future of Afghanistan under Taliban rule.
Religiously, Saudi Arabia and the Taliban have religious affiliations. For years, Saudi Arabia has funded Taliban hardline religious schools in the Pakistani cities of Peshawar and Quetta. The Taliban adhere to Sunni Islam, which is a combination of the Deobandi, Salafi, and Wahhabi religions. Although the Wahhabi religion in Saudi Arabia differs from the Taliban in some Sharia beliefs, both share ultra-conservative interpretations of Islamic scriptures.
In the political sphere, Saudi Arabia has been an active element in the US-Taliban peace talks, competing with Qatar and the UAE. Riyadh repeatedly tried to bring the Taliban to Saudi Arabia for peace talks, but the Taliban did not accept Saudi neutrality. In a failed attempt, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) met with then-Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis in March 2018 and promised to establish a “safe haven” for Taliban members seeking peace talks. Politically, if Saudi Arabia ignores the Taliban, it will lose its political rivalry and sphere of influence to Qatar, the UAE, Turkey and, most importantly, Iran.
Ideologically, Saudi Arabia has the closest ideological thinking to the Taliban. Saudi ideology, which cannot be separated from the conservative Sharia of Wahhabism, is deeply linked to the traditional social conditions of Saudi Arabia, which is strongly religious and influenced by Wahhabi Islam and a strict understanding of Islam, and that’s why the Saudi religious and traditional community also supports the Taliban. For 20 years since Saudi Arabia severed ties with the Taliban, wealthy Saudi sheikhs and Taliban sympathizers among the Saudi people have supported the Taliban with private funding.
The New York Times reports that Agha Jan Motasim, the Taliban’s finance minister, fled to Quetta, Pakistan after the fall of the Taliban and managed to organize the remaining Taliban elements, and was appointed head of the finance committee. He traveled to Saudi Arabia two or three times a year between 2002 and 2007. Apparently, he was going on a pilgrimage, but his main goal was to raise money and financial resources from the rich Saudi sheikhs and wealthy Arabs, which reached him through Saudi like-minded people. The closeness of the ideology of Saudi Arabia and the Taliban is the best tool of Saudi influence in Afghanistan that should not be silenced.
Numerous religious, political, and ideological ties between Saudi Arabia and the Taliban have left Riyadh officials unable to remain indifferent to Afghanistan’s future and will begin formal or informal contacts with them. The US determines the type of formal or informal relationship between Saudi Arabia and the Taliban. The US is pessimistic about the Taliban and does not trust them. Prior to the capture of Kabul, the US had promised to isolate the Taliban if they seized power by force.
Saudi Arabia’s informal relationship with the Taliban leads to security and intelligence relationships that remain under the control of both sides’ intelligence services, resulting in escalating ethnic conflicts in Afghanistan. This worsens relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States as conflict and division in Afghanistan leads to the strengthening of terrorist groups.
In this situation, Israel can help Saudi Arabia. In a state of distrust between the United States and Saudi Arabia, Israel can be the best mediator between the two countries. Although Israel is far from Afghanistan, it cannot be indifferent to the rise of Islamist groups there, and it wants Saudi Arabia to be there on its behalf. The history of intelligence activities between Saudi Arabia and Israel has shown Tel Aviv that it can trust Riyadh in the fight against Islamist groups and Iran’s influence in the region.
Fear of political Islamism
Saudi Arabia fears that political Islamist ideas will spread to the country. Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has started many social and economic restructuring since 2017. For this reason, it is trying to prevent the spread of Islamist ideas in the country, because recently, the process of economic modernization has exceeded social modernization and angered the traditional generation from MBS’s modernization plans. The traditional and conservative Saudi generation believes that MBS, as a modernist and technocrat, is anti-religious and heretical. The spread of Taliban Islamist ideology in Saudi Arabia reinforces the risk of turning a Saudi generation into militant mujahideen, which in turn will target Saudi security.
Israel shares the same opinion about Islamist groups. Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen a former Israeli corps commander and commander of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Military Colleges warns the “for all Its overwhelming material and technological superiority, the IDF stands no chance of defeating Israel’s Islamist enemies unless its soldiers are driven by a relentless belief in the national cause.”
According to Gershon Hacohen, the Taliban won in Afghanistan based on their faith. He went on to say that there is a Sharia-based belief among Islamist groups called the “phase of weakness” (Rahlat al-Istidaf) that requires patience to anticipate opportunities. Their faith makes them wait for the next victories in case of defeat, but the West and Israel could not bear the burden of a prolonged struggle without a solution in the near future. “.
The Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan and the spread of their fighting pattern to Palestine and Islamist political groups like Hamas cause the same problem for Israel, because Israeli soldiers fight according to plan and logic, not according to patience and struggle in God’s way.
Both Israel and Saudi Arabia fear Islamist groups in Afghanistan and that the country may become a haven for terrorists. They are concerned about the impact of extremist jihadist ideas on their citizens and rival groups. This factor can pave the way for cooperation between the two countries in the fight against Taliban extremism.
Afghanistan, with its history of war, extremism and disorder, is a major problem in the region, and the Taliban is a reality that must be addressed urgently and strategically. Perhaps Afghanistan, with its unpredictable developments, will be able to revive the Abraham Accords. In this regard, Maj. General (res.) Yaakov Amidror, a former national security advisor and head of military intelligence research, wrote in an article that the US withdrawal proposes to the Arab states of the Persian Gulf that “an open relationship with Israel is vitally important for their ability to defend themselves.” He added that although Israel could not replace the US as a guarantor of regional security, “but together with Israel these countries will be able to build a regional scheme that will make it easier for them to contend with various threats.”
But even if Saudi Arabia can better overcome Afghanistan’s problems with Israel’s help, especially to contain Iran in Afghanistan, which is a common enemy of both, MBS is well aware that developments in the region in recent years, and especially its weakness and inaction in the face of the 11-day war in Gaza, have undermined its position among the world’s Muslims, so normalizing relations with Israel will not be easy. If there is a relationship between the two countries in Afghanistan, it will likely be secret and limited to the exchange of security and intelligence information as in the past.
Author: Mohammad Salami – Ph.D. in International Relations. He writes as an analyst and columnist in various media outlets. His area of expertise is Middle East issues, including the GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).