By Nikola Mikovic
Kyrgyzstan – a young Central Asian nation with a history of regime changes – is facing its third “color revolution” in just 15 years. Given that the previous two coups in Bishkek did not result in changes of the country’s geopolitical course, it is unlikely that the Kyrgyz society will face any radical transformations after the turmoil is over.
Following the parliamentary elections that were held on October 4, several opposition parties staged mass protests in the capital Bishkek claiming that the vote was rigged. Demonstrations soon turned violent, and the riot police did not manage to prevent protesters from storming government building. Although initially security forces dispersed demonstrators from the city’s main square, protesters eventually seized the Parliament building and the President’s office. Unexpectedly, they freed former country’s President and Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev from prison. He was arrested in August 2019 and sentenced to 11 years and two months in prison on corruption charges. Now that he is free, it is very probable that he will play an important role in the future of the former Soviet republic.
Ironically, Atambayev was the one who named his successor – the current Kyrgyz President Sooronbay Jeenbekov – in 2017, even though he later reportedly admitted that that was his biggest political mistake. Jeenbekov took control over the ruling Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), and the country’s business and political elite soon moved to the side of the new leadership, which triggered the split in the SDPK as former Atambayev loyalists started creating new political alliances.
During the coup in Bishkek, the speaker of the Kyrgyz parliament, Dastan Jumabekov, and Prime Minister Kubatbek Boronov both resigned. The parliament has now chosen Myktybek Abdyldaev as the new speaker and Sadyr Japarov as interim Prime Minister. Japarov is an ex-lawmaker who was also set free from prison by demonstrators. In 2017 he was sentenced to 11 and a half years in jail for hostage-taking. However, given that Jeenbekov is still de jure the country’s leader, and he hasn’t accepted his Boronov’s resignation, formally Japarov is still not the Prime Minister. In other words, the situation in the country is very confusing and it is unclear who has the levers of power.
It is worth noting that most of the political parties that staged the violent protests in Bishkek did not pass the seven percent electoral threshold, while SDPK did not even participate in the elections. Still, since the security apparatus did not show loyalty to Jeenbekov, the opposition managed to de facto overthrow the government and the President. Kyrgyzstan will now enter a transitional period, and various interim authorities will be announced, which will create conditions for a complete chaos, as it is still unclear who rules the country. Also, a wild-scale unrest should not be excluded, especially if Jeenbekov manages to mobilize his supporters.
In addition, some of the opposition parties and non-governmental organizations that participated in this “color revolution” in Bishkek are allegedly backed by the United States. Prior to the elections, a video was posted and widely shared on Kyrgyz social networks accusing the Reforma party and its leader Klara Sooronkulova, as well as other influential opposition leaders, of being funded by the U.S. Indeed, certain opposition figures in Kyrgyzstan are pro-West oriented, although the country is expected to stay heavily dependent on Russia. It is Moscow, rather than Washington that has a major influence in Bishkek, as the former Soviet republic is a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Union, as well as the Collective Security Treaty Organization. It is worth remembering that Atambayev announced Kyrgyzstan’s entry into the Russia-dominated Eurasian Customs Union in 2015, while in 2014 he secured the withdrawal of the American military base from the country.
Thus, once the chaos in the country is over, and a new government is formed, he will likely continue implementing his old policy, which means that Kyrgyzstan’s geopolitical orientation will mostly remain intact. Also, Moscow could eventually interfere to protect its military facilities in the country, and also to prevent a civil war there. Kyrgyzstan hosts Russian air-base in the city of Kant, and Kyrgyz economy is heavily integrated with the Russian one. For instance, in January 2019, the Kyrgyzstani State Migration Service reported that 750,000 Kyrgyzstanis work outside the country, with more than 640,000 in Russia, which is about ten percent of the country’s population. That is why Bishkek is expected to keep good relations with Moscow, regardless of the internal power struggle.
If history is any guide, the previous two “color revolution” in the Central Asian nation did not result in the country’s new geopolitical vector, nor did Kyrgyz economy face any radical transformations. Kyrgyzstan had its first “color revolution” in 2005 after the parliamentary elections. Mass demonstrations resulted in the overthrow of then President Askar Akayev. Also, another Kyrgyz leader, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, was ousted during the so-called People’s April Revolution in April 2010. Therefore, the current political turmoil in Kyrgyzstan is nothing unique. The country yet again entered the period of uncertainty and instability.
Finally, besides Kyrgyzstan, two other Russian allies are also facing major crises. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko is coping with post-election protests, as the Western countries refuse to recognize his legitimacy, while Armenia is de facto at war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. In the near future, the Kremlin will have to find a way to deal with all these problems that could potentially jeopardize its influence in Eurasia.
Author: Nikola Mikovic (Freelance journalist, researcher and analyst based in Serbia. He covers mostly the foreign policies of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine).
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: AP