By Denis Korkodinov
The attempt to revive the “Arab spring” was interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this attempt is likely to receive an additional impetus in the post-coronavirus era, as a result of which the Middle East risks again to become the scene of coups and revolutions.
In Iran, the first case of coronavirus infection was recorded on February 19, 2020, when two people with a confirmed diagnosis died in Qom. Then, COVID-19 quickly spread throughout the Islamic Republic, and also spread to the territory of Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, Jordan, the countries of North Africa and the Persian Gulf. The urbanization has facilitated the spread of the virus, that has unveiled acute problems in the organization of the health care systems, public utilities, banking sector, as well as in public administrations.
Huge problems have arisen the tourism industry, which play a significant part in the formation of the national budgets of several states in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the abolition of the Hajj season for all Muslims in the holy city of Mecca has raised the accusations against Saudi Arabia for violating Islam.
In addition, the sharp drop in oil prices triggered a new wave of mass ruin and the closure of commercial enterprises. For this reason, a powerful social layer of marginalized has formed in almost all Middle Eastern countries, which have begun to accuse representatives of national governments of adopting a series of restrictive measures that are not commensurate with the pandemic threat.
In general, in the Middle East, the same problems around the world due to the pandemic have become relevant.
The only and perhaps essential nuance is that the crisis, generated by the coronavirus, in many MENA countries may become the “trigger” for an extreme radicalization of society, which was already ready on the eve of the pandemic to organize coups and revolutions
Social protest with the advent of COVID-19 has not disappeared. However, now in quarantine, the protest moved from the streets to people’s homes, where it received nourishing soil. At the same time, the ability of law enforcement authorities to preemptively neutralize opposition groups has become limited, as it is impossible to look into each private house or apartment to check what people are doing in self-isolation conditions, if they are preparing explosive devices for subsequent terrorist attacks are discussing plans to seize power.
If before the pandemic, in the street protests we could quickly identify the conspirators in the crowd and neutralize their destructive influence, now that most citizens are forced to stay in their homes, it has become very difficult to control the content of their pastime. Meanwhile, dissent, due to the pressure of the crisis associated with the pandemic, has started to develop very quickly.
The most obvious confirmation of this is the situation in Lebanon. On the eve of the spread of the coronavirus, the country witnessed severe social unrest caused by the fiscal policy of the Saad Hariri cabinet. In addition, a series of corruption scandals complicated Beirut’s economic situation, following which the government was forced to resign. People took to the streets and demanded systemic changes in all areas of society and the state. These protests in Lebanon have proved to be the biggest in the past 17 years, causing a “domino effect” in other countries and, above all, in Iraq.
Following the resignation of the Adil Abul-Mahdi government, a “vacuum” has arisen in the Iraqi political system, which, through social actions, opposition leaders and nationalist groups have tried to fill. They managed to organize a series of protests, followed by attempts to attack US military and diplomatic structures in the vicinity of Baghdad.
The situation in Iraq is complicated by the fact that in conjunction with the first cases of coronavirus infection in the country, the Iraqi leadership has been unable to decide on the candidacy of the head of the cabinet and to adopt the state budget for 2020. This has led to further pressure on Baghdad by the national opposition, which accused the current political regime of corruption and inability to solve socio-economic problems. Now in Iraq, people continue to show dissatisfaction, blaming the government and the army for the abuses used under the cover of the fight against coronavirus.
Another attempt to revive the “Arab Spring” could be made in Algeria, where, starting from March 17, 2020, due to the pandemic, all public events, including rallies and demonstrations, have been banned. A major problem for the state, in addition to the coronavirus, is the complete paralysis of the penitentiary system due to the mass imprisonment of people who violated the quarantine regime.
Algeria’s prisons have proved to be crowded with people who, if they were previously law-abiding, then in prison conditions, communicating with political prisoners, could obviously begin to oppose the authorities. Furthermore, in the case of serious crimes in the country, criminals cannot simply be sent to prison due to the fact that there are no empty places in Algerian prisons.
Under these conditions, Algerian police forces are forced to suspend the examination of numerous criminal cases for serious crimes and impose punishment on people not related to imprisonment. As a result, a sharp increase in crime has been outlined in Algeria, while the attention of the country’s judicial authorities is now focused on the offenders of the quarantine regime.
Therefore, COVID-19 has not deprived Lebanon, Iraq, Algeria and a number of other states of the problems that have caused the recent social unrest. And, most likely, in the post-coronavirus era, these disorders will resume. The COVID-19 pandemic could make a process of mass protests inevitable due to the series of anti-crisis measures adopted by national governments, which will unequivocally be considered by the demonstrators to be disproportionate to the threat, insufficient and unjust. This process of social indignation has acquired an absolutely irreversible character: it will be difficult to prevent or neutralize it.
As soon as national governments allow to ease the restrictions imposed by the pandemic, social protests could immediately break out on the streets.
In light of this, states could now try to tighten the self-isolation regime as much as possible in the hope that this regime will be a guarantee for state security. However, it is paradoxical that the restraint regime in itself forces society to radicalize: and the harder this regime is, the more radical the subsequent social actions will be. But abolishing this regime now for governments could be suicidal. So a new “Arab spring” may be inevitable in the post-coronavirus era.
(The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)