By: Dr. Mohammad Salami
The U.S. military announced, in a statement, the closing of three military bases in Qatar last month and the moving of equipments and troops to the Jordan Sayliyah main military base, along with the Camp Sayliyah-South, and the ammunition supply point named Falcon.
The closure of the three bases in Qatar coincided with the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the spending of billions of dollars on counter-terrorism in the country, which did not come to fruition after 20 years. The United States has previously withdrawn eight Patriot anti-missile batteries from Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
What do these developments mean and for what purpose? Is the United States planning to leave the Middle East? As has been said, has the United States withdrawn its military bases and equipment from the Middle East because of China and its restrictions? Or has the Middle East become a lower priority in US foreign policy?
In fact, the United States and China are in close competition in the Middle East, and the United States does not intend to leave the Middle East in China’s favor so that Russia and China can replace it in the region. What emerges from the dynamic developments in the Middle East is that the US withdrawal is more of a tactic than a strategy and aspect of assessing the developments and the reactions of the countries involved to these developments.
Balancing against the threat
Increased competition with Iran and flexibility in responding to crises caused by Iran is one of the reasons for these developments in Qatar. US embassies and bases in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan are regularly hit by missiles fired by pro-Iranian military groups. The largest of these attacks by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was a rocket attack on the US airbase at Ain al-Assad in Iraq, which killed and wounded more than 100 US troops in Iraq.
The United States has closed its base in Qatar to counter missile strikes by pro-Iranian military groups and save the lives of its troops, while Washington wants to reduce the weight of Iran’s missile leverage in Iran’s nuclear talks, which Joe Biden wants to revive. The United States does not want Iran to use missile power on US bases in the Persian Gulf as a tool of power in the negotiations and seeks to thwart this possible Iranian plan.
Rich Arabs and the price of security
US defense spending in the Middle East is very high. The U.S. wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Pakistan have cost American taxpayers $ 6.4 trillion since they began in 2001. That total is $ 2 trillion more than all federal government spending during the recently completed fiscal year. These costs put a lot of pressure on the US economy.
Former US President Trump did not consider these expenses fair and called for the participation of countries in the region in the security and defense expenses spent by the United States in the Middle East. He always reminded the Arab leaders of the Persian Gulf that without our support, you would not last even two weeks. He told a news conference with his French counterpart that Americans had spent $ 7 trillion over the past 18 years and that rich countries should pay for it.
Although Biden opposes some of Trump’s policies, he is also committed to serving US interests, especially during the Corona Pandemic, which hit the US economy hard. Pandemic Covid-19 reduced US GDP growth by 31.4 percent and raised the unemployment rate to 14.7 percent. The economic blow forced US political and military leaders to demand US military spending in the Middle East from wealthy Arab countries. That is why the United States closed three military bases in Qatar to assess their reaction.
The Arab countries of the Persian Gulf are highly dependent on US support for their security and fear of Iranian influence, and are willing to pay any price to continue US support. So, the United States can reimburse its military spending this way.
Israel Security
The relocation of US bases from Qatar to Jordan is directly linked to Israel’s growing security threats and the US commitment to maintaining its security. Less than two months have passed since the 12-day Israeli offensive in Gaza, in which Hamas was able to extend its missiles to strategic depths in Israel. The threat of Hamas missiles and Biden’s desire to revive the US-Iran nuclear talks, as well as the US decision to reduce its focus on the Middle East and its military presence in East Asia, are three issues that have jeopardized Israel’s security and Tel Aviv has repeatedly called on US officials to pay more attention to Israel’s security.
The US commitment to Israel’s security has prompted the US to relocate its three bases to Jordan to encourage Israel. This not only brings it closer to Israeli territory, but also makes it easier to use American forces and equipment to help Israel in times of crisis, through Jordan’s formal relations with Israel.
Reducing the US military role in the Middle East and withdrawing US military equipment from the Middle East does not mean a real reduction in US attention from the Middle East. The Middle East has become one of the most important geostrategic regions in the world due to its unique oil position, and China’s presence in the Middle East is due to the same geopolitical and economic influence of the Middle East in the world. What can be understood from the new US military strategy in the Middle East is related to the determination of the new US military strategy and policy in the region.
In the current situation, what the Americans have in mind is that they do not know what will happen in the host countries after they leave the region. They do not even know which group will take the positions they occupied. The fact is that in recent years many radical groups have grown up across the region over which the United States has lost some of its core control, so they do not know what the future holds for these groups and their operating model in the region. Accordingly, the strategy that the Americans have put on the agenda is to transmit cross-sectional signals, in other words, “instant shocks” to the region.
The closure of three military bases in Qatar or the previous withdrawal of eight Patriot anti-missile batteries from the Persian Gulf region is in line with this strategy and determines all aspects of the reactions of the countries involved and their sensitivities to the US military presence in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. In this way, US military and defense politicians can better achieve a precise military strategy in the region.
Author: Mohammad Salami – Ph.D. in International Relations. He writes as an analyst and columnist in various media outlets. His area of expertise is Middle East issues, including the GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy or views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Credit: U.S. National Guard photos by Staff Sgt. Michael Williams