In the process of developing tensions over the status of Kashmir, Pakistan and India are showing rapid exhaustion of diplomatic opportunities for a constructive dialogue. At the same time, the parties to the conflict are increasingly resorting to sharp slogans that can be used by the armed forces of both countries as a guide to action. The Indo-Pakistani confrontation aimed at fanning the conflict – to which the world community is particularly careful – and turning it into global chaos poses a real threat to all of humanity, which risks becoming a witness to a nuclear catastrophe.
Especially for World Geostrategic Insights, we talked about this with Dr. Swati Ray Chakraborty, assistant professor of human rights at Schoolguru Eduserve Pvt Ltd., researcher at the King Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz International Center for Interfaith and Intercultural Dialogue in Vienna, and vice president for South -Eastern Asia at the Academy of Eurasian Doctoral Students (EDSA.
1. On August 16, 2019, the board of the Supreme Court of India decided to postpone the proceedings on the lifting of restrictions on the media in Jammu and Kashmir,after the cancellation of the special status of the region in accordance with Article 370 of the Constitution of India. According to the judges, the situation in Kashmir is improving. Meanwhile, residents of Kashmir still complain that since the introduction of restrictions to the present they are almost completely deprived of communication with the outside world: there is no telephone connection, there is no Internet, the region is blocked by units of the Indian army. In turn, postponing the proceedings, the Supreme Court of India in fact recognized the decision of the Narendra Modi government to abolish the special status of Kashmir as legal. Is it really? Is it likely that after the expiration of the trial, the Supreme Court of India may decide to renew the Article 370 of the Indian Constitution?
– Yes this is true. On August 5, 2019, the Indian government revoked the special status granted to Jamm and Kashmir, a state in India located in the northern part of the Indian subcontinent and part of the larger Kashmir region, which has been the subject of a dispute between India, Pakistan and China since 1947, in accordance with article 370 of the Indian Constitution, through a series of far-reaching measures. The Kashmir Valley was virtually closed, all communication lines were cut off, and political leaders under house arrest. The President of India, Ram Nath Kovind, issued an order under article 370, repealing the current presidential decree of 1954 on the special provision of autonomy. Interior Minister Amit Shah introduced a bill to reorganize the Indian parliament, seeking to divide the state into two union territories, which will be governed by a lieutenant governor and a unicameral legislature.
On August 5, 2019, Raja Sabha, the upper house of the Indian Parliament, discussed the bills to abolish the special status in accordance with the Article 370 and reorganize the region, receiving 125 (67%) of the vote for and 61 (33%) against. On August 6, the bill was discussed and adopted by Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Indian parliament, with 370 (86%) votes in favor and 70 (14%) against.
International human rights groups condemned the revocation resolution. On the contrary, Hindu nationalists celebrated, claiming that it “could bring peace and investment” to the region. The Buddhist community in Ladakh, the eastern region of Jammu and Kashmir, also welcomed the decision, stating that they have long been ignored, and now they can be “masters of their own destiny.”
Under such conditions, it is erroneous to conclude that the Supreme Court of India may renew the special status of the state of Kashmir. The decision was dictated by political will, which cannot be reversed.
2. In deciding to abolish the special status of Kashmir State, the Indian government proceeded from the view that such a measure could equalize all administrative entities in India, among which Kashmir stood out through its exclusive position. At the same time, the government of Narendra Modi most likely foresaw the likelihood that, as a result of the abolition of Article 370 of the Constitution of India in Kashmir, clashes with those who disagree can occur. How likely is New Delhi to neutralize protests in Kashmir in the short term? What methods of influencing the local population are available in the arsenal of the Indian government?
– The latest chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, Mehuba Mufti, called it “the darkest day of Indian democracy.” She felt that the Indian parliament had taken everything from the residents of Jammu and Kashmir. In her tweet on August 4, 2019, she said that the decision of the leadership of Jammu and Kashmir to reject the theory of two nations in 1947 and bring it into line with India had the opposite effect.
The process of creating a mechanism to neutralize the local residents of Kashmir is really difficult, but not impossible. The most unpleasant situation is connected with a terrorist act and its impact on local residents. The Indian government is always trying to impose the concept of the phrase “One nation, one law” to praise the feelings of all of India even before the general election in 2019.
Meanwhile, Pakistani President Arif Alvi convened an emergency joint parliamentary meeting of the National Assembly and the Senate to discuss the situation in Kashmir. On August 7, 2019, a joint parliamentary meeting adopted a resolution condemning India’s move and called it “an illegal, unilateral, reckless, and violent attempt to change the controversial status of India-occupied Kashmir, as enshrined in UN Security Council resolutions.” Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi at a press conference announced that Pakistan would remain committed to opening the Kartarpur Corridor for Sikhs despite tensions, and stated that “we are ready to welcome our Sikh brothers and sisters to the 550th birthday of Baba Guru Nanak ”
The process of building trust should be carried out in a very delicate way in order to build respect for the government and its apparatus among local residents. This is the main method for making all of India happy.
3. The situation in Kashmir is of particular concern due to the fact that it may serve as a reason for a war not only between India and Pakistan, which have nuclear weapons, but also between blocs of countries, including Afghanistan, the USA, China, Iran and the Gulf countries. How likely is it that a conflict over the special status of Kashmir could escalate into a global war in which nuclear weapons will be used? After all, Islamabad has repeatedly emphasized that it does not limit itself in the use of any means in order to exert pressure on India. In turn, members of the New Delhi cabinet of ministers on August 16, 2019 in their public statements also pointed to the possibility of using nuclear weapons. Does this mean that India and Pakistan are seriously prepared to expose all of humanity to a nuclear threat?
– I would like to emphasize that India is always the biggest supporter of its neighbors when there is any need (natural disaster, catastrophe or crisis). For the world community, the biggest problem is to minimize the conflict between two neighbors. With a strong foreign policy, India is unlikely to use its nuclear weapons against anyone, but, of course, it depends on the situation of self-defense. As for Kashmir, this is a “domestic” issue, according to the Indian government. Therefore, it is obvious that this will be seen as a priority to protect their citizens and their rights.
4. At the moment, are there any signs that military groups of any country are concentrated near the borders of Kashmir, are there preparations for military operations? In general, what processes are taking place both in Kashmir itself and beyond, which could serve as the basis for conclusions about the regrouping of troops, the concentration of heavy military equipment?
– After the question of the abolition of Article 370 created pressure on the government of Pakistan, and they already began to vote against India from an international platform, the armed forces of official Islamabad quickly approached the control line along the borders of the state of Kashmir.
Tension remains, as always, but the United States and other developed countries have supported India. Thus, militarization should no longer serve as fuel for this prevailing tension.
5. According to the Indian special services, Pakistan has already begun actively using Afghan militants in Kashmir. Does this indicate that New Delhi may reconsider its relationship with the government of Ashraf Ghani in Kabul or protest Afghanistan against the threat posed by the Taliban?
– With the consciousness of peace and brotherhood, in order to make this World a better place, all countries are responsible for not having such a war or a situation similar to a war in order to destroy humanity and the world. I am sure that with a better understanding, support and cooperation with the Afghan government. the problem of terrorism and the problem of the Taliban can be resolved to protect the world.
6. China is so far the only country that has openly expressed support for Islamabad in upholding its claims to the territory of Kashmir. In order to demonstrate its intentions, Beijing even advanced its armed forces to the border with India, which could be interpreted as a challenge to an open armed conflict. Does this mean that New Delhi could aggravate relations with Beijing or is there a chance that India and China can agree on mutual non-interference?
– Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying opposed the integration of Ladakh into India, saying that “this undermines the territorial sovereignty of China.” In addition, Ms. Chunying noted that “the actions of India are unacceptable and will not have any legal force” in relation to the disputed territory on the Sino-Indian border. Regarding Kashmir as a whole, Hua Chunying confirmed that “the Kashmir problem is a problem inherited by India and Pakistan.” On August 9, 2019, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, after meeting with Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Kureshi, that China is “seriously concerned about the turbulence and escalation of tension” in Kashmir and that “China will continue to firmly support the Pakistani side in ensuring the security of its country.”
In addition, China does not want any conflict with its huge market in India. So the whole thing is in bilateral relations, which today play a decisive role in the global economy.
7. At the initiative of China, an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council was convened on August 16, 2019, during which the situation in Kashmir was discussed. How effective was this meeting for India? If the UN Security Council, as a result of its activities, decides that would conflict with New Delhi’s policy regarding Kashmir, will the government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agree to regain the special status of the region?
– Indian Ambassador to the UN Sayed Akbaruddin said that some countries are trying to predict the alarmist situation in Kashmir. At the end of the closed-door meeting on Friday, China and Pakistan were isolated after the meeting refused to support their position. The Government of India intends to gradually remove all restrictions in Kashmir when the situation improves significantly.
“Stop the terror to start negotiations” was the statement by Saed Akbaruddin, the representative of India in the UN Security Council. As such, there was no UN Security Council decision. The question of the situation in Kashmir is still in the air and it is unlikely that this question can get any definite answer. Most likely, the leaders of the countries will once again gather for a meeting to discuss the status of Kashmir. And if a decision is made during the negotiation process, the Indian government will be forced to submit to it. Otherwise, New Delhi runs the risk of facing international sanctions, which is extremely disadvantageous for the Indian government.
Image Credit: PTI