President Trump announced on December 19th that U.S. will withdraw its troops stationed in Syria. The president justified his decision by saying that the fight against ISIS is won. The United States has invested a lot of human resources, time, and materials in Syria.
From the Obama administration, the United States, through economic and military assistance, joined the Arab, Turkish and European allies in supporting the Syrian opposition. Later, due the rising of the “Islamic State”, the U.S. increased its military presence there with more than 10,000 special forces and military training personnel.
Trump’s reason for withdrawing troops is hard to convince. And prompt withdraw isn’t so simple, and requires careful coordination with allies, including Turkey and Israel. But the choice to withdraw can be a bound for an analysis of the U.S. strategic timing.
Two thousand years ago, Chinese military scientist Sun Wu proposed:
the most advanced operations are the use of strategy, followed using diplomatic means, followed using the military, and the most inferior operations are to storm the city.
The US strategic system is divided into three levels: national security strategy, national defense strategy and military strategy. During the Cold War, the strategic focus of the United States was Europe. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the United States gradually paid attention to the changes and trends in the situation in the Asia-Pacific region. And the Trump administration, it emphasized problem-oriented and pursued the U.S. priority principle.
Taking advantage of the days when the United States was busy with counter-terrorism after the 9/11 attacks, China quickly developed into the world’s second largest economy and gradually implemented economic expansion. Asia, Africa, Latin America, Europe, and the United States, China’s invisible expansion extends to the world. Like the former Soviet Union, it gradually established strong influence and even control in the world.
As the challenger of the United States established order in the world, China becomes the focus of attention for USA. From a series of events, China become the near-term and long-term target of the United States.
In March, the US State Department levied tariffs on goods imported from China; in June, it imposed penalties on China’s ZTE Corporation; on September 20, punished Development Department of the Central Military Commission of China and the Minister of the Ministry Li Shangfu; in December, the head of Chinese company Huawei was arrested in Canada.
Although China has become the world’s second economy, but its rapid economic development relies on cheap labor and participation in international division of labor. It occupied the international market in low-end manufacturing, and is lack of technical. In addition, China cannot guarantee the safety and autonomy of grain, oil, and foreign exchange reserves, and has a large dependence on the international market, which has formed its unique drawbacks and the economy has bubbled. Its weakness was completely exposed in the trade war.
If the trade war is only a strategic strike by the United States against the weakness of the Chinese economy, the other strategy is a comprehensive siege of China. In 2017, the United States deployed the Sadr anti-missile system in South Korea; on June 12, 2018, the United States and North Korea held a summit meeting in Singapore. The Taiwan Travel Act is signed on March 16, 2018. On December 11th, U.S. Congress unanimously approved the Reciprocal Access to Tibet Act for denial of access to the United States for Chinese officials who design and implement travel restrictions on American journalists, diplomats and citizens from entering Tibet.
North Korea, Taiwan, and Tibet have always been the core of China’s most sensitive political issues. Under the implementation of a series of intensive strategies, the United States has repeatedly plunged China into a passive situation. It is foreseeable that China will have to face more strategic strikes from the United States in the future.
Strategy is divided into multiple levels. The traditional strategy refers to the Military Strategy, which is the pre-planning of the war, the detailed plan of the military action, the movement and disposal of the force. And adding to the political level, it is called the grand strategy, in addition to the overall strategy including the economic and psychological aspects (Total Strategy).
The withdrawal of the USA from Syria could only a shift of strategic focus to new areas. Withdrawal is for a better offense. As Sun Wu said: “the diversification of strategic is like the water”.
Image Credit: Countercurrents