By Denis Korkodinov
The confrontation between India and Pakistan is the most dangerous manifestation of regional tension, at the risk of escalating into a global conflict. The abolition of the special status of Kashmir made the already critical situation almost irreversible. The problem is complicated by the fact that both states have the potential for mutual destruction through the use of nuclear weapons.
According to the terms of the partition plan of the former British colony in 1947, Kashmir had the right to independently determine the jurisdiction of which state to call. However, the region’s last maharaja refused to hold a referendum, thereby giving Pakistan a reason to start full-scale hostilities. Since then, India and Pakistan have been on the verge of a nuclear war three times.
The so-called Kargil crisis of 1999 became especially dangerous, when the parties were seriously ready to deliver nuclear attacks to each other. Nevertheless, the intervention of the international community allowed us to somewhat normalize the situation, but at the same time the parties to the conflict did not abandon their military plans for each other.
In February 2019, Islamabad and New Delhi were once again on the verge of full-scale hostilities. The reason for the escalation of the conflict was the killing of a resident of Kashmir. In response, the armed group Jaish-e-Muhammad, led by Masoud Azhar, aimed at separating Kashmir from India, launched a series of terrorist attacks against Indian troops, killing 45 people.
India regarded the move as a good reason for launching rockets at the Jaish-e-Muhammad camp in the Kashmir-controlled area of Islamabad. Following this, Pakistan used military aircraft to attack Indian sites in the region.
Currently, the situation is repeating itself. At the same time, New Delhi is considering the possibility of increasing its military presence near the Pakistani border, where Islamabad concentrated its strike force. Thus, there is a risk of a direct armed conflict between the warring parties.
The nuclear potentials of India and Pakistan cannot be comparable, for example, with the potential of the USA, Russia or China. However, this does not indicate their potential insignificance in the case of real use. For example, since 2018, New Delhi has been using the INS Arihant nuclear submarine, capable of delivering ballistic missile attacks with nuclear warheads. In addition, India’s security can be ensured through ground ballistic missiles “Agni III” with a range of up to 3,000 km, as well as cruise missile “BrahMos”.
Islamabad, in turn, has little potential for a nuclear strike. So, Pakistan does not have nuclear submarines. In addition, the range of ballistic missiles in service with Pakistan does not exceed 2,000 km. However, the potential of Islamabad, according to sources, is estimated at 140-150 units of nuclear weapons that can reach the territory of India within 4 minutes of launch.
More recently, the international community could influence the Indo-Pakistani confrontation, but now the parties to the conflict are unlikely to pay attention to anyone and listen to someone’s advice. This makes the situation between countries the most explosive. Meanwhile, while Islamabad and New Delhi are trying not to cross the “point of no return”, since they understand that the conflict can actually take on a nuclear shape.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: IndustanTimes