“Previously, hedgehog Big Eyebrows (Military Might) are enough to deter the enemy with their large stock of munitions and nuclear nukes, but now in the 21st Century, Big-Data storage and access will definitely change the characteristics of deterrence. Simply, modern swords need modern Shields.” Dr. Rana Danish Nisar
By Dr. Rana Danish Nisar
Seriously, now, States don’t have a massive economy aimed to deal or handle largest military assets. According to security specialists, even nuclear assets need more money to reserve them. Soon after, the pandemic named “Covid-19”, the order of the globe seems like a pendulum. States are facing massive economic recession and downfall.
Owing to this condition, the meaning of Globalization, International Relations, warfare, deterrence have been changed. The wardrobe of the globe has in-depth paradigm shift from classic politics to digital-Politics, Traditional security to Digital-Security, classic Terrorism to Digital-Terrorism, Kinetic warfare to Non-Kinetic warfare and Kinetic deterrence to non-Kinetic deterrence.
During the era of the Cold war, the two rivals had focused on increasing the number of nuclear nukes. The “Atom for peace” was the strategy which was introduced by the USA with multiple aims i.e. To get information about states who are engaged in nuclear matters, To how-know about the states who are indulged in Nuclear technology (Uranium) trading etc. before this policy, the Americans nuclear attack on Japan, forced other states to think about getting nuclear weapons. In the mid 20th century and during the 1960s, the Cuban missile crisis is the lively example of nuclear deterrence among two nuclear powers of that time USA and USSR.
Until the demise of the USSR, the USA had a small quantity of nuclear weapons as compared to the USSR. Basically, the economic management of the USSR was rigorous because the USSR spent a huge piece of its economy on military purposes against the USA. The consequences were awful which led the most powerful nuclear power towards collapse. But with the beginning of the 21st century, the meaning of deterrence has been changed. With the rise of Computational sciences, Information Technology, Artificial Intelligence and digitization, the credible inventions and developments have been seen in military technologies. The storage has been increased from “KILOBYTES ” to “TERABYTES (1000000000000 BYTES)”. This journey of storage is still continuing moving towards destination i.e. KB, GB, TB, PB, EB, ZB and YB etc. turning on the point, this time, in this hybrid era of 21st century, particularly after covid-19, states are more conscious about economy rather than traditional security.
Dr. Ali Abass, a security analyst argues that states are moving towards now from EARTH to OUTER-SPACE and for this journey, Computational technology needs more rapid advancement. He inks that the wardrobe of warfare & Deterrence are entirely changed now. All the previous definitions of defence & strategic tactics, military policies are totally fade in this I.T era. In this Hybrid era with hybrid threats, states need hybrid solutions, Ali said. Dr. Rana Danish Nisar profoundly says that in this time world is facing military & non-military, covert and overt, disinformation, cyber-attacks, economic recessions, proxy warfare, deployment of awful & irregular armed personas along with media threats. The classic concepts are far away from them. Dr. Ali & Dr. Rana Danish Nisar both are agree that in classic Cold War, Balance of Power was entertained by follow the concept of “Deterrence Theory” and states usually show their nuclear nukes to deter the enemy but now states have more threats vis-à-vis other states other than nuclear threats.
Dr. Ali agrees with Dr. Danish that today revisionist actors are more in numbers as compared to status-quo powers that’s why the world is facing revisionist threats. Simply, modern sword need modern shields with hedgehog deterrence. Previously, hedgehog Big Eyebrows (Military Might) are enough to deter the enemy with their large stock of munitions, but now in the 21st Century, “Big-Data ” Storage and access will definitely change the characters of deterrence. Simply, modern swords need modern Shields. States can’t afford the biggest defense budgets. Apart from the 800 billion$ defense budget, the USA has other responsibilities. The USA also needs massive money to make check and balance with IMF, WHO, UN etc. same story is with other countries i.e. China, India, Japan etc. retaliation with nuclear nukes can be disastrous for the globe. That’s why states are moving towards kinetic to non-kinetic deterrence. The dog has no power to hit the face of the camel but has the power to bite on the camel’s leg.
So, states are thinking now about smart work rather than hard work. Now, there are many different tools to deter the enemy i.e. propaganda deterrence, media deterrence, defamation deterrence. In this social world with smart technology, the Whatsapp, Facebook, Twitter and other social applications are also the part of non-kinetic deterrence against the enemy. States who will has more data/Computational Technology, will have more deterrence. The positive thing is that with this paradigm shift in the concept of traditional deterrence i.e. swords, wars, nuclear arms race, the world will be saved from the horrible nuclear catastrophes like the NAGASAKI & HIROSHIMA.
Rana Danish Nisar – The author is a PhD (International Relations) Student at the School of Politics and International Studies (SPIS). He holds Mphil in (International Relations), Masters in (Pakistan Studies), and Masters in (International Relations) degrees. He won acceptance Harvard Project for Asian and International Relations HPAIR (USA), 2017. His research interests are broadly in South Asian Affairs, South Asia Geo-Politics, India-Pakistan Relations, South Asian Nuclear Politics, US and South Asia, Indian Ocean, Security studies, South Asian developments studies.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).