By Raja Arsalan Ali
The end of British rule from mighty subcontinent in 1947 resulted in partition of South Asia. Two new independent states emerged on the map of the world, India and Pakistan. India as a secular state with a dominant Hindu majority but also a large Muslim minority. Meanwhile, Pakistan was established on the slogan of two nation theory, which defined the Muslims as a separate entity from Hindus, with consequently a separate homeland, Pakistan.
These two states entered a new phase when they emerged as de facto nuclear states in the last decade of the twentieth century. With the nuclear armament of these two nations, a new chapter in the nuclear policy in South Asia was opened. As overt nuclear weapons states, India and Pakistan had to reorient many of the nuclear assumptions – political and military – that they previously held (Bumitra 2016). They had to formulate nuclear doctrines and create command and control systems in order to construct a stable Indo–Pakistani nuclear deterrence.
Pakistan and India have undergone in a series of confrontations, mainly related to the Kashmir issue, that could have resulted in a nuclear wars. The strategic framework of South Asia is comprised by the bipolar nuclear equation between India-Pakistan. And nuclear policy is playing a major role in revolutionizing the relations among the Major Powers and South Asia.
Indo-Pak Nuclear Doctrine
The most crucial concern after Indo-Pak emergence as nuclear states was whether these nations had adequate doctrines for the prevention of unintentional nuclear use. Critics pointed out that the region confronted a genuine fear of nuclear catastrophe due to doctrinal, command and control weaknesses. New Delhi announced a draft nuclear doctrine on 17 august 1999, and eventually adopted it with some modification,
in January 2003. Islamabad did not formally announce any nuclear doctrine, but revealed the setting up of a National Command Authority (NCA) comprising the Employment Control Committee (ECC), the Development Control Committee (DCC) and the Strategic Plans Division (SPD) to serve as the secretariat of the NCA. All doctrinal, employment and deployment control, over all nuclear strategic forces and organizations of Pakistan, were delegated to this apex nuclear decision-making body (Bumitra 2016).
The history of nuclear development and nuclear policies of India and Pakistan are different. India believes nuclear weapons to be the currency for autonomy. Added to this, the present BJP government has made it clear that it aspires to be a world power so it is in the process of establishing nuclear forces for a “minimum deterrent” that is largely directed at China. Pakistan’s nuclear capability is solely directed at India. Both countries have entered into a series of conflict and will likely continue to do so due to unresolved Kashmir dispute. Nuclear weapon are the only effective defense Pakistan has against its potential enemy India, which enjoys over a three-to-one ratio in terms of conventional military forces.
Though, both India and Pakistan have addressed the control and command issues. But question still remains about the strength of measures taken to eliminate the constant fear of war between them. Pakistan has shown a positive stance on nuclear arms control in South Asia. It has agreed on joining global nuclear arms control and non-proliferation treatise, providing that India did so. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, while giving an interview to an American Based TV channel, announced that “Pakistan would give up nuclear weapons if India does too”. However, India doesn’t seem receptive of such proposals, probably also due to the nuclear threat from China.
Role of External Actors in Indo-Pak Nuclear Policy
Role of great powers in regional politics has increased the complexities of South Asian nuclear policy. The recent trends, such as Trumps offensive rhetoric against Pakistan, Indo-US nexus, and China’s expanding strategic interest and economic investment in the region, have introduced profound changes in the South Asian nuclear policy.
Strategic co-operation of India and the US has changed the pattern of relationships between the India, Pakistan and US. South Asia is important for the US due to its interests in Central and West Asia. The positive trajectory of Indo-US relation: growing bilateral ties in defense and economic sphere, geo-politicizing of nuclear cartels including NSG, and American support in multilateral international agreements such as STA-1 and COMCASA, has dramatically changed the South Asian policy. Additionally, the strategic role of China in the Indian Ocean Region, and the construction of CPEC, have increased the concerns of US in the region.
The United States is playing a key role in the Indo-Pak nuclear politics. The Indo-U.S Nuclear deal, special regarding the NSG waiver and membership of WA and MTCR, has the potentiality to break the strategic balance in South Asia. In order to maintain deterrence equilibrium and stability in the region, could be imperative for Pakistan to modernize its conventional and strategic forces.
Conclusion
Despite the compelling necessity, India and Pakistan have yet to undertake serious arms control measures to stabilize their mutual deterrence and minimize the risk of nuclear weapons use. An achievement of a successful stable deterrent relationship between India and Pakistan is the key to the peace of South Asia. The nuclear politics of India and Pakistan is a threat not only to these two nations but to the whole world. With the involvement of international powerful actors such as China and USA, a nuclear war between India and Pakistan can turn into a global war.
Even if United States and other countries provide assistance for the stabilization of the region, further steps are required in order to ensure that neither India nor Pakistan are induced to further strengthen their nuclear armaments. And these steps may include the resolving of the core issues between these two countries, i.e. the Kashmir dispute.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
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