The Balkan peninsula is one of the regions that is dominated by conflicts and crisis. The Balkans War, World War I and the breakup of Yugoslavia are just a few of the many armed conflicts. Moreover, this gate of Europe always had the potential to generate a more broad conflict on the old continent.
Also, many of the global powers have always competed for dominance over this fragile area. On top of that, there are various local disputes between the Balkan nations that prevent the prosperity of the peninsula.
On those issues is the name dispute between Greece and Macedonia.
The Prespes agreement which was ratified by the parliaments of both countries ended the 28 years old political dispute over the name of Macedonia. According to the agreement, the country will change its name to North Macedonia. Also, it will join NATO under this new name.
The NATO Expansion Project
There are many historical and ethnic elements that created this regional problem. However, our goal is to analyze this situation through the prism of geopolitics and security. Therefore, it is important to emphasize that the backers of this deal are NATO, the United States and the European Union. Macedonia has been trying to join NATO and EU since it becomes an independent state in 1991.
However, after the breakup of the old Yugoslav Federation, Greece strongly opposed the use of the name Macedonia. This is based on the fact that Greece controls 51 % of the region of Macedonia. Therefore, the Greek government has ever since has been blocking Macedonia to join the North-Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Moreover, in 2008 during the NATO summit in Bucharest, the Greek side vetoed the invitation of Macedonia to join NATO. Moreover, the Greek government demanded Macedonia to change its name in order to join the alliance. Ever since the Macedonian EU-Atlantic integration process is frozen. These events complicated the American interests in the region.
Furthermore, during the last decade, NATO did not see Macedonia as an important puzzle of its strategy to expand and grow. After all, this a country with 2 million people is surrounded by mostly NATO member states. Also, the Macedonian authorities are Pro-Western in their policies. Therefore, the NATO leadership was not in a rush to integrate Macedonia as a member.
The Emergence of Russia
However, the strong Russian emergence on the global scene revived the old rivalry with the West. Many of the NATO and US security analysts saw this Russian resurrection as a threat. The Russian intervention in Georgia, the annexation of Crimea shows that Russia is a serious global player again. Moreover, the Russian success in Syria came at a surprise to many in the alliance.
Also, the Russian ambitions on the Balkans were constantly growing. The Russian military has an active presence and its own base in Southern Serbia.
Additionally, the Kremlin considers Macedonia to be part of the transit for the Turkish stream pipeline.
Therefore, the Western geopolitical strategists needed to go back on the drawing board.
The Alliance response was to speed up the addition of new member states from the Balkans. The idea was to prevent a possible spread of potential Russian influence in the region. Therefore, Montenegro was integrated as the 29th member state.
In the case of Macedonia, the Greek veto proved to be the stumbling block to integrate this former Yugoslav republic.
That is why NATO and United States too the initiative for this name change agreement to pass. Therefore, the only winner of this outcome its NATO and the United States. By adding Macedonia to its ranks, NATO secured its dominance over the Balkan peninsula. The Alliance has also a strong base in the base Bondsteel in Kosovo. This de facto leaves only Serbia and Bosnia & Hercegovina as the only countries without NATO presence.
Another benefit for NATO is that by adding Macedonia, it can contain Serbia as the only isolated Russian ally in the region. Therefore, this will also add an additional international pressure about solving the Kosovo issue.
An Agreement for Further Dispute?
The Prespes agreement which will see Macedonia renaming to North Macedonia can also generate further conflicts. The rush to end this decades-old dispute in just one year can be costly for the alliance. And for the Balkan region as well.
This thesis is based on the fact that there is a strong opposition against the agreement in both countries. To be more specific, the referendum in Macedonia shows that the majority of the people are against the renaming the country.
Moreover, there is a growing anti-NATO sentiment in this Balkan state. Additionally, a number of MP’s in the parliament supported the deal in exchange for amnesty( as they were under investigation for crimes and corruption).
Combined with that, the President and the main opposition party VMRO-DPMNE opposed this agreement. They even went further calling it a capitulation.
In Greece, there is also a strong opposition for the Prespes Agreement. The New Democracy leader Mitsotakis publicly stated that his party will not respect the deal. Moreover, the opposition leader vowed to block Macedonia in the process of joining the EU. And based on the recent polls, his party is the main favourite to win the next parliamentary elections.
Therefore, with both countries will probably have their future leaders as the main opponents of the deal in the near future. This may end with NATO “importing” another problem into the alliance. Similar to the issue of Cyprus and the tensions between Turkey and Greece. Another challenge is improving Turkish-Russian relations.
Also, the Trump administration constant budget pressure on other member states is undermining the stability of the alliance. Importing this Balkan dispute into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization may be costly for the Alliance.
Conclusion
The name change agreement between Macedonia and Greece opens the path for NATO to expand. Moreover, through this framework, the alliance can assert its geostrategic objectives. However, this agreement may result in an internal problem of NATO. That is why this agreement will just contain the issue.
The Macedonian – Greek name dispute can still implicate significant regional and geopolitical complications.
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