By Chester Cabalza
Amid the COVID-19 surge in Beijing and the territorial spat between China and the Philippines, this did not stop President Xi Jinping from rolling out the red carpet at the Great Hall of the People to his counterpart, Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr., the first world leader he welcomed this year with a great intent of proposing a comprehensive strategic partnership with the archipelagic Southeast Asian nation.
Doubts about the timely three-day state visit of Marcos Jr., who landed on Tuesday in Beijing signed more than 10 bilateral agreements from a full range of the wish list covering four pillar areas of cooperation on agriculture, energy, infrastructure, and people-and-cultural exchanges, before returning to Manila on Thursday. However, some of the 14 signed agreements are either revivals or continuation of unfulfilled accords from previous Philippine administrations.
The creation of a direct communication line to avoid miscalculation and miscommunication in the contested West Philippine Sea is considered among the highlights during the invitational tour. But the novelty of the maritime communication was carried out from the 2017 coast guard diplomacy between the two countries that opened more naval skirmishes and diplomatic protests. In other words, it was a failure on the ground but is expected to resolve the maritime issues peacefully following its renewal at a higher talk level.
Manila’s maritime dispute with Beijing raised by Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to Xi Jinping remains to be a work in progress as the dilemma becomes an impediment in calibrating a higher gear on China-Philippines defense and security relations. This comes after the new Filipino leader repaired its damaged bilateral relations with Washington to temporarily pursue a neutrality policy and momentarily review the Philippines’ alliance with the US and like-minded nations, as his predecessor radically pivoted to a giant neighbour in the past six years.
Today’s Marcos-Xi expanded bilateral meeting reaffirms the deepening of Philippines-China security relations aimed at cementing the broken lines of good neighbourliness and friendship. Forty nine years ago, the young Marcos Jr. was seen photographed standing beside Chinese paramount leader Mao Zedong with his beautiful mother, Imelda Marcos, now the grand dame of Philippine politics. His father’s state visit to Beijing was the first Filipino leader who primordially established the robust Philippines-China relations. Now in his first non-ASEAN official trip, he carries with him his ‘secret weapon’ ― ex-president Gloria Arroyo, who pioneered the golden era of the bilateral relations of the two East Asian countries. Marcos Jr. allowed her to meditate on the economic affairs of the Philippines with China.
But President Marcos Jr.’s arrival in Beijing deeply reminds Manila of its past sour relationship when it won an arbitration award in 2016 against its new big brother. The UN Permanent Court of Arbitration invalidated Beijing’s dominant maritime claims in the tense South China Sea which the Chinese politburo still disregards the international decision. However, President Xi is confident in displaying an eminent role in the region bolstered by Chinese economic achievements and after securing a precedent-breaking third term as the leader of the world’s second largest economy.
Xi Jinping’s consequential appeasement policy and juicy economic opportunity for the Philippines through the raw comprehensive strategic partnership may spark heightened US-China power contestation into new heights despite observations that the successful official trip of Marcos Jr. to Beijing will not alter China’s strong position in the South China Sea even with apparent burgeoning economic and trade relations between the two Asian states.
Taking off from how China handles a crisis, this linguistic faux pas may signify clandestine connotations of a chance of “danger” and a possibility of “opportunity” that may illuminate Beijing’s treatment over Manila’s security anxieties in the West Philippine Sea. While all eyes are on China this week and despite the tough anti-Chinese sentiments among Filipinos posting a mixed reaction to President Xi’s welcoming approach to Philippine president and his high-profile delegation, Beijing is adamant in leveraging its strategic ties with Manila. It will not cease courting the Philippines until China gets what it wants from its small neighbour.
The heavily debated Framework for Joint Exploration in the West Philippine Sea citing references from the October 2016 Joint Statement of China and the Philippines on joint exploration undersea and the November 2017 Mutual of Understanding on Energy Cooperation certainly differ from the 2004 Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking signed by the two sovereign states with Vietnam joining the tripartite agreement later on to explore the South China Sea for oil and natural gas. The agreement’s constitutionality ceased four years after the three maritime claimant-countries in the South China Sea inked such a ground-breaking cooperation before imploding into diplomatic and legal battles reaching an arbitration case in February 2013 against China while the Philippines reaped legal triumph in July 2016. The same framework fell from negotiation during Duterte’s regime despite his known strategic cooperation with China.
Now the Philippines’ tough balancing act in pursuit of economic dependence from China to finance a robust infrastructure program should be dealt with carefully. Manila now holds the key to decide wittingly as other Indo-Pacific major powers led by the US continuously invest far more than China. The present multi-linear lens of how economy and security intercedes particularly when the pragmatic Filipino leader is calibrating for a higher gear on defense, security and economic relations with Xi Jinping’s China should not compromise Philippines’ sovereignty and sovereignty rights.
Dr. CHESTER B. CABALZA is the President and Founder of the International Development and Security Cooperation (IDSC), a Manila-based think tank.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Source: Xinhua/AP