By Aqeel Ahmad
Depending on whom you talk to in the defense and national policy circles, hypersonic weapons are “super-duper” missiles ready to transform combat since they are difficult to defend against.
Others argue that they are simply the latest in a long series of overhyped weapons systems and that they are relatively easy to defend against since they fly slower as they approach their target than ballistic missiles with comparable ranges. Some argue that hypersonic weapons would boost conventional deterrence by leveling the playing ground with enemies that are developing and deploying hypersonic weapons. Others say that they would increase tensions between nuclear-armed states by heightening concerns of a disarming assault and stoking a risky weapons race.
They are so fast that their speed may alter the molecules of the surrounding air. They can deliver a nuclear bomb, fly at low altitudes, and are difficult to detect. Hypersonic weapons are now at the heart of the escalating race between the United States and China. After a prolonged gap, hypersonic missile research and development (R&D) has resumed. Major powers, including Russia, China, and the United States, have been competing to build hypersonic technologies. This high-speed technology has the potential to destroy current missile defenses in ways that confined salvos of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) may not be able to. The new hypersonic systems have initiated a new arms race between the global major powers.
What is a hypersonic weapon?
Hypersonic weapons travel at least five times faster than the speed of sound. Which is roughly 760 miles (1,220 kilometers) per hour at sea level, meaning these weapons can travel at least 3,800 miles per hour with nuclear capabilities. Hypersonic is not a single technology rather, it is a group of interlinked technologies making a unitary functional system. According to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), successful hypersonic systems necessitate the effective combination of several technologies, including high-speed supersonic combustion ramjet (scramjet) engines, high-temperature materials capable of handling the high heat loads correlated with hypersonic flights, advanced manufacturing methods, and enhanced vehicle configurations. The hypersonic weapon could travel between New York and Beijing in about 1 hour and 40 minutes.
Different types of hypersonic missiles
Hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) and Hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs) are the two primary categories. Because of the difficulties in creating hypersonic propulsion in missiles, the majority of effort is concentrated on the former, which are launched from a rocket before gliding to their target. The missiles include scramjet engines that utilize the oxygen in the air to create thrust throughout the flight, letting them cruise at a constant speed and altitude.
Which states developed hypersonic technology?
China
China conducted two tests of new hypersonic missiles in July and August, sparking further fears in the United States about its geopolitical rivals expanding military capabilities. The hypersonic glide vehicle was lifted by a Long March rocket, the launches of which are generally announced by China, albeit the August test was kept secret as China has denied the test of the nuclear-capable hypersonic missile. Although the missile missed its target by more than 20 miles (32 kilometers), it still put the US in grave concern about China’s military capabilities.
China also has several guided ballistic missiles it’s farthest-reaching is the DF-26 (Dong Feng-26), which is an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that can travel about 4,000 km, and likely re-enters the atmosphere faster than ten times the speed of sound. It can reportedly carry either a nuclear or a conventional warhead. China also possesses a new boost-glide missile the DF-17 which it showed off in a military parade in October 2019. It’s not clear whether this missile has been deployed but if it has not yet, it probably would soon. The DF-17 carries a glider and has a range of between 1100 to 1550 miles; it can reportedly be armed with a nuclear or Conventional warhead. China conducted DF-17’s first test launch on January 9, 2014, and on November 15, 2017, employed DF-17 to boost hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) to apogee.
Russia
In major powers’ hypersonic weapons race, Russia competes equally well. In 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin brought hypersonic weapons into the forefront when he announced the completion of its first hypersonic weapon test. The avant-garde weapon can reach speeds of Mach 20. Russia’s Avangard is a long-range hypersonic boost glide missile, its glider enters the atmosphere at around 20 times the speed of sound and is designed to deliver nuclear warheads or conventional payloads. Similarly, Russia has 3M22 Tsirkon, also known as Zircon is a winged anti-ship hypersonic cruise missile. The Zircon missile is capable of achieving speeds of more than eight Mach, or around 9800 kilometers per hour. Moreover, the Kh-95, Russia’s newest hypersonic fighter, was abruptly presented by Colonel-General Vladimir Zarudnitsky in August 2021. The Kh-95 claims to be a long-range hypersonic cruise missile, possibly answering a critical mission need for a deterrent hypersonic weapon capable of overcoming NATO air defense systems while being delivered outside the effective engagement ranges of Western interceptor missiles. According to defense industry sources, the Kh-95 will be compatible with the updated Tu-160M and Tu-23M bombers.
United States
The United States so far has not deployed any maneuverable hypersonic weapons for much of the last two decades. Rather, the United States has focused on improving its ability to conduct prompt conventional strikes. Its efforts have been focused on developing boost-glide missiles that can carry non-nuclear warheads over many thousands of miles. Making sure that weapons of such long ranges are accurate enough to be effective even without much more powerful nuclear warheads presents daunting technical challenges. Nonetheless, the United States has made significant progress including a successful test of a hypersonic glider over 2400 miles in November 2011. Unfortunately, the pentagon hypersonic missile program suffered a setback after its latest test failed on Oct 21. The test took place at the pacific spaceport complex in Alaska. The failure is yet another blow to US’s efforts following a failed test in April 2021. The US is currently developing Conventional Prompt Strike (combines glide vehicle with submarine-launched booster system) for 2028. Likewise, it’s also developing Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapons and Long-Range Hypersonic Weapons, and five other hypersonic weapon programs.
Why Hypersonic?
Hypersonic weapons may be able to counteract existing missile defense technology due to their combination of speed and mobility. Military hypersonic systems can carry conventional or nuclear payloads. As a result, hypersonic weapons are distinguished by “warhead ambiguity.” This implies that enemies are uncertain whether the weapons are nuclear-armed or have conventional payloads. In such a case, opponents are likely to think that the weapons are nuclear-armed. When combined with the short reaction time provided by hypersonic missiles, a nuclear-armed enemy may plausibly think it is under nuclear attack and respond accordingly if one is launched. Even if unintentionally, the consequence might be a nuclear war. Similarly, the Chinese could use their versions of these missiles to target American bombers and other aircraft at bases in Japan or Guam. Or the missiles could attack vital land- or sea-based radars anywhere, or military headquarters in Asian ports or near European cities. The weapons could even suddenly pierce the steel decks of one of America’s 11 multibillion-dollar aircraft carriers, instantly stopping flight operations, a vulnerability that might eventually render the floating behemoths obsolete.
Hypersonic weapons are contributing to an intensifying arms race that spans beyond the missile might. Their development encourages the acceleration of new defense capabilities, arguably giving rise to a security dilemma and further arms escalation and instability. These are intended to outpace existing anti-ballistic missile defense systems currently operated by leading states such as the United States, Russia, Israel, and India.
Aqeel Ahmad is a Graduate of International Relations from University of Balochistan and currently working as an Assistant Researcher at Balochistan Think Tank Network (BTTN), Quetta, Pakistan
(The views and opinions expressed in this article are only of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinion or position of World Geostrategic Insights).