By Shah Meer
According to the latest report from the World Bank, Pakistan’s economy is currently facing significant challenges including unavoidable inflation, dwindling foreign reserves, and a depreciating currency.
Moreover, the political environment in the country is highly polarized, with intense political confrontations and tensions. The military establishment, which wields significant power in Pakistan’s politics, has come under harsh criticism for its political interventions and alleged disregard for democratic processes. However, amidst these pressing issues, there is yet another major crisis that has been largely overlooked: the vulnerability of Pakistan to the Monsoon Wind System due to inadequate planning, outdated infrastructure, and economic weaknesses. This article outlines short-term preventive measures to mitigate the potential impact of the upcoming monsoon season.
Monsoon is an enormous sea breeze that occurs because of variations in the heat of the land and the sea. The powerful breezes travel from June to September from the southern hemisphere towards the North-East covering the entire South Asian region and causing heavy rainfall. Historically, Arabs leveraged from the breezes in their voyages and even Indus Valley Civilization prospered noticing a surge in its agriculture. Even today, Monsoon is celebrated as a festival in India, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
Notwithstanding, the breeze has a contrasting trajectory in the history of Pakistan. Pakistan Flood Commission reveals that the country has suffered 28 riverine floods since 1947. Besides, Indus erupts its banks to thousands of kilometers due to immense rain often inundating Sindh and Balochistan. As per a report from Asian Development Bank, Pakistan lost $18bn in economic costs of monsoon floods from 2010 to 2014. Additionally, the report of Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives released in 2022 on the monsoon floods claimed that the floods affected 33 million people and displaced 8 million alone in 2022. Similarly, the World Bank’s Post-Disaster Need Assessment revealed that the floods would push almost 9 million people under the poverty line. In sum, overall losses were reckoned $40bn in 20222
In the rehabilitation process of the 2022 floods, Islamabad secured pledges of only $10bn from the international community under the 4Rs Framework, a very tiny amount as compared to the floods coasts. During an interview with flood affectees from Kachi, Bolan, Balochistan and Hyderabad Sindh, the author received primary data on the post-disaster reconstruction process. The affectees conveyed that no governmental initiatives have been taken, and people are living under the open sky with deteriorated agriculture. In the same vein, the empirical data suggest the same socio-economic landscape in other flood affected areas.
The awful and hideous part is that the monsoon has almost reached again and its intensity is estimated to increase in the wake of Climate Change. It is also prognosticate that Pakistan would be among 20 countries vulnerable to immense rainfall in 2023. More severely, the UNDP’s Pakistan Resilient Recovery Vision claims that the extreme weathers like that of 2022 will not only be frequent, but also intense in Pakistan in the future. Unfortunately, no proactive measures are being taken.
A long-term way forward is largely contingent on the political stability of the country, sustainable growth in the economy and constructing resilient infrastructure, which is impossible to be achieved on an immediate basis. Therefore, short-term measures must be considered to protect the homeless and affectees on an emergency basis from the upcoming devastating rain.
First, the government needs to realize the threat of excessive rainfall and recognize it. It must rally all possible sources, stakeholders, and non-governmental organizations for an inclusive, proactive and comprehensive plan involving flood prevention, rehabilitation, and post-disaster reconstruction. Equal emphasis must be given to early disaster warning systems based on efficient communication with people and a community-based approach.
Second, the administration must build and increase the number of shelter homes – the people who lost their houses in last year’s floods are still sheltered. It must be accompanied by adequate clothes and edible and nutritious food, for the excessive rainfall drains the agriculture on which the majority of the flood-vulnerable areas are dependent.
Third, in the areas which are highly vulnerable to upcoming rains and where shelter homes cannot be constructed due to transportation and high cost issues, the locals should be transferred to safe abodes. The bridges and other important connectors must be assessed and repaired if needed. Gas pipelines, electricity wires and telecommunication towers should be checked.
Fourth, Pakistan must embark upon an international campaign concerning the monsoon rains and their increased intensity due to climate change. Islamabad should accelerate diplomatic processes for gaining international assistance and more international pledges from donors under its 4RF strategy.
Finally, the monsoon wind system is the perennial challenge to the sub-continent and the successive Pakistani administrations have proved ineffective against it. However, Pakistan has a vibrant civil society and the potential to mobilize resources to combat the monsoon’s effects. The need of the hour is to consider the monsoon into the border national security apparatus.
Author: Shah Meer – Intern working on strategic affairs, nuclearization and emerging technologies in IR at Balochistan Think Tank Network, and graduate of International Relations from University of Balochistan, Quetta, Pakistan. He has been writing on several national and international platforms on competing strategies, democratic recession and rise of populism, and climate change.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of World Geostrategic Insights)
Image Credit: Yasir Rajput/Reuters