By Fizza Mehak Batool
Artificial Intelligence (AI) integration has become a crucial requirement for modern defense strategies. Specifically, for regions like South Asia, which comprises long standing rivals, India and Pakistan, the AI incorporation can affect deterrence in the region.
India and Pakistan have had a long history of animosity, which is evident in the full-fledged wars of 1965 and 1971, and the small-scale conflicts, such as the Pulwama attack and the Kargil episode. Over the decades, India has adopted aggressive policies by being involved in the internal matters of Pakistan, which caused the separation of East Pakistan in 1971. However, since the acquisition of nuclear capabilities, there has been a strategic balance between India and Pakistan.
Deterrence is the ability of a state to prevent an adversary, based on the threat of retaliation, from initiating an attack against it. Based on deterrence, the nuclear states of the region have avoided total wars, though small-scale conflicts have occurred; the post-Pahalgam events of the region is one such example. The region may witness a shift in its deterrence dynamics because of the AI incorporation into the military domain of the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
Worldwide, states are deploying AI into their defense structures, and South Asia is no exception. India has been significantly incorporating AI into its defense systems, which increases its warfare capabilities. India tested its AI-enabled swarm drones, based on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), in February 2023.
The Indian Ministry of Defence, in 2019, established the Defence AI Project Agency (DAIPA) and the Defence AI Council (DAIC) to integrate AI into its defense system. Since 2011, the Project Army Integrated Decision Support System (AIDSS) has been effective in AI integration for operational and administrative purposes. Further, in July 2022, the Indian Ministry of Defence announced the development of 75 AI advanced technologies, including new AI machines for data analysis, logistics, surveillance, and weapons, for instance, autonomous boats, unmanned technologies, facial recognition systems, and swarm drones.
Similarly, Pakistan is also integrating AI into its defense capabilities. In 2020, an electronic warfare (CEW) system was launched by the Centre for AI and Computing (CENTAIC) at the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) to increase data fusion, smart surveillance, and autonomous decision-making. Similarly, the National Centre of Artificial Intelligence (NCAI) was established in the National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST) to develop AI technologies in partnership with the defense and industrial sectors.
Another significant advancement is the development of the Shahpar III, a medium altitude long endurance Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV), which was initiated by NESCOM and marketed by Global Industrial & Defence Solutions (GIDS), and deploys AI for surveillance, precision strikes, and target procurement.
AI integration provides several advantages to deterrence in the region. Firstly, it strengthens the intelligence and surveillance system of both countries. Through the AI-powered satellite imagery, signal interception, and drone surveillance, they get the capability to access data timely and easily, which can help them to take precautionary actions and maintain their capabilities against the adversary. Secondly, through the machine learning capacity, the states can make faster decisions, specifically during a crisis.
Also, the decisions may have less chances of error or bias, which can help both states to de-escalate the crisis immediately and maintain the deterrence against each other. Lastly, through AI integration in border and strategic sites management, rivals opt for deterrence-by-denial by deterring attacks on each other’s borders. In contrast, AI integration also brings several risks for regional deterrence, such as the excessive reliance by the rivals can cause conflict escalation, arms race, and cyber threats. Hence, deterrence in the region can be impacted through AI integration.
In order to enhance deterrence and reduce the risks associated with it, there is a need to follow several steps, which will neither hinder technological advancements nor cause threats to the deterrence between the two states. Firstly, both states need to establish an AI-based Confidence-Building Measure (CBM), which can include provisions, such as not launching fully autonomous weapons. Secondly, both states may adopt track-II diplomacy by bringing the technologists, academicians, policymakers, military, and government officials together to discuss the incorporation of acceptable AI technologies. Finally, both states can opt for an AI code of conduct, which can be formed under the platform of the UN or SAARC. Thus, through these steps, the deterrence in the region can be maintained, which may maintain strategic stability along with technological advancement.
Fizza Mehak Batool – Research intern at the Balochistan Think Tank Network (BTTN), Quetta, Pakistan.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy or views of World Geostrategic Insights).