By Fakeha Laique
May 2025 saw an escalation of military conflict between two nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, indicating a regional crisis with global ripples. This conflict sent a clear yet dangerous message to the world: possessing nuclear weapons doesn’t stop the states from firing missiles.
Although this conflict was between two countries, its repercussions, involving global players, go beyond the two countries. The military show-off between both states involved military Equipment-Chinese JF-17 and France’s Rafales-given by key global players.
Moreover, the conflict ended with a US-mediated ceasefire, which asserted the US’s role as a global mediator once again. Given the US’s strategic tilt towards India and Pakistan being China’s all-weather friend, the conflict showed that South Asia is no longer a periphery in world affairs, but it is a geopolitical fault line where the US-China rivalry is increasingly evident.
The South Asian region is one of the world’s strategically important locations, having strategic stakes for global powers. That is the reason India and Pakistan hold high importance in the eyes of world powers. With India being the strategic partner of the US and Pakistan emerging as the “Iron brother” of China, rival states keep their influence in the region.
In recent years, India has aligned with US-led alliances such as QUAD, receiving US defence technology and intelligence sharing. Whereas Pakistan has military ties with China, seen in the co-production of JF-17 and J-10C supply. Similarly, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) anchor China’s long-term economic and military footprint in the region and beyond
The 2025 India–Pakistan war was a critical proxy inflection point in the wider U.S.–China strategic competition, where it was shown how international power relationships determine the flashpoints of South Asia. The use of state-of-the-art Chinese arms, J-10 C fighter aircraft and the PL-15 missiles by Pakistan, established Beijing’s growing standing as Islamabad’s main defence counterpart, whereas New Delhi’s use of French Rafale combat planes underscored its increasing integration into the Western security set-up.
Apart from military manifestations, there was a surge of cyber intrusions and satellite monitoring on both sides, relying on the foreign technological forces, combining the local wars with the global rivalry. In the meantime, the U.S. sought to play a double game, pushing for de-escalation between India and Pakistan, while maintaining an unstable trade lull with China. This combination of battlefield complexity and diplomatic balancing underlined the fact that the India-Pakistan war was not isolated diplomatic action but rather an expression of the global transformation regarding the changing nature of power rivalry.
In addition to security architecture, China and the US are also engaged in a strategic competition on the economic front through trade and investment. China is asserting its influence in the region through its economic strategy involving BRI infrastructure, the digital Silk Road project, and an arms-for-influence approach towards Pakistan. China has been Pakistan’s largest creditor and second-largest arms supplier globally.
While India is following the geo-economics strategy outlined by the US, as it is involved in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and India Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC), initiatives launched by the US as alternatives to China’s BRI. Cashing in on the economic arena, the US gave trade incentives to India and Pakistan for the recent conflict de-escalation, which is denied by India but noted by President Trump. This US mediation in the India-Pakistan conflict shows a shift in the US’s South Asia policy, from development aid to strategic economic statecraft.
The 2025 India-Pakistan conflict demonstrated the ever-increasing risks of strategic convergence and miscalculation in South Asia, while the regional conflicts are increasingly intertwined with the global power rivalries. At the same time, the conflict revealed the weakness of the regional and international institutions in crisis regulation.
The response of the United Nations Security Council was restricted to closed consultations, which portrayed its indolence in dealing with the growing tensions. Further, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was crippled with neither a mechanism of mediating nor collectively responding, thus leaving external powers with increased opportunities to dominate regional stability. Such developments point out the need for strong regional mechanisms to address the conflicts present in South Asia and avert external forces from shaping the security of the region.
With the increasing entanglement of South Asia in the US-China strategic rivalry, the region needs a new strategic framework that focuses on dialogue rather than dominance. A trusted step forward would be the use of South Asian Strategic Dialogue that will be patterned after the ASEAN Regional Forum that brings in regional states, extra-regional powers such as the U.S and China, Track 1.5 actors (think tanks, retired diplomats, academics). This forum could revolve around the risk-reduction, arm transparency, and non-interference principles.
There should be transparency in defence cooperation – be it Indian alliances with the U.S. and France, or Pakistani reliance on Chinese military support – should become normalised under a rules-based regime to avoid miscalculations. In the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, as observed, the absence of institutional crisis mechanisms further precipitates the escalation and proxy involvement.
After all, the U.S. and China will have to relocate their South Asia strategies, not as a continuation of their global competitiveness, but as an arena for healthy competition.
The recent India-Pakistan conflict demonstrated the risks of zero-sum geopolitics, in which military aid, trade leverage, and diplomatic posturing all converged within an inch’s width of war. Instead, great powers should be stakeholders for stability, providing crisis hotlines, intelligence sharing on terrorism, and a regional non-proliferation agreement. Strategic stability in South Asia is a global necessity, not a regional gift. With no restraint and cooperative modus operandi in place, South Asia could potentially turn into a volatile frontier whereby the global stakes are high and the window of error virtually non-existent.
Author: Fakeha Laique – International Relations graduate from BUITEMS, currently working as a research intern at Balochistan Think Tank Network (BTTN), Quetta, Pakistan.
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy or views of World Geostrategic Insights).