By Slaviša Milačić
The decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan escalated again, on September 27, with the second intense military confrontation in three months.
According to the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan the Armenian Armed Forces started a large-scale provocation and fired on positions of the Azerbaijani Army as well as civilian settlements in the Karabakh frontline zone. The attack utilized large-caliber weapons, mortars and artillery of various calibers.
Unlike the previous large-scale clashes in mid-July of this year, which started along the state border between Armenia and Azerbaijan and was mostly limited to the Tovuz/Tavush regions of the sides, the military exchanges that erupted this time occurred in Azerbaijan’s occupied Karabakh region and covered a wider area.
The Azerbaijani defense ministry reported that the first shelling began in areas surrounding Tartar, Aghdam, Fuzuli and Cabrayil. According to the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, the command staff of the Azerbaijan Army decided to launch a counter-offensive operation of Azerbaijani troops, along the entire front, to suppress the combat activity of the armed forces of Armenia and ensure the safety of the civilian population. The Ministry said:
“The military personnel and tank units, with the support of units of the Rocket and Artillery Troops, frontline aviation, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), determining a large number of manpower (military personnel), military facilities, and military equipment of the Armenian armed forces located in the forward line and in the depths of the enemy’s defense, have destroyed them”.
In turn, blaming Azerbaijan for the start of the hostilities, the Armenian authorities announced on the morning of September 27 that:
“The Azerbaijani army attacked the entire length of the line of contact with rocket-propelled grenade launchers and missile strikes.”
At this stage, it is not clear which side’s version of the latest outbreak of violence is more plausible. Shortly after the outbreak of the fighting, Armenia declared martial law and general mobilization. Although the State Service for Mobilization and Conscription of Azerbaijan first announced that there was no need for general mobilization at the moment, an extraordinary session of the Azerbaijani parliament later decided to impose martial law in some cities and regions of the country.
Multiple states and international organizations called on the conflicting forces to return to an immediate ceasefire. From the very beginning of the conflict, Russia has been calling for a peaceful solution. Meanwhile, just as it did following the July clashes, Turkey again expressed strong support to Azerbaijan through multiple channels. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs assured that Ankara is ready to assist Baku in any way.
What the history of this conflict teaches us is that the Armenians are much more determined to preserve Nagorno Karabakh than the Azerbaijanis are eager to take it. From the military point of view, it is important to point out that Armenia has certain strategic weapons at its disposal, which can keep the Azerbaijanis at a distance.
Where Azerbaijan’s Air Force currently relies exclusively on Soviet built combat aircraft which are 30 years old or more, namely a small unit of MiG-29A fighters supported by Su-25 attack jets, Armenia currently deploys a small contingent of four Su-30SM ‘4+ generation’ heavyweight fighters, with eight more of the jets now on order. These are not only the only heavyweight fighters deployed in either Azerbaijan or Armenia, but are also the only fighters in either country which were built less than 30 years ago placing them technologically around three decades ahead of the lighter MiG-29 fighters in the Azeri fleet. The Su-30SM is the most advanced variant of the Su-30 ever to enter service, and benefits from the latest developments in Russian sensor, electronic warfare, composite material and weapons technologies.
It is no exaggeration to say that a small contingent of four Su-30SM fighters can comfortably neutralize the entire Azeri Air Force with little threat to itself due to the massive discrepancy in weaponry, sensors, flight performance and electronic warfare systems. Su-30SM jets can also be relied on to deliver precision strikes across Azeri territory, and was designed with the endurance required for deep penetration missions into Western Europe meaning even with a full weapons load and half filled fuel tank it can comfortably reach any target in Azerbaijan.
Armenia also was the first confirmed export client for the Iskander hypersonic tactical ballistic missile system, which is considered the most capable platform of its kind in the world and is thought to have been purchased specifically to counter Azerbaijan’s air defence. The Iskander was designed to evade advanced NATO air defence systems such as the PAC-3 Patriot platform, and is capable of maintaining high speeds throughout the middle and terminal stages of its trajectory and impacting at speeds of Mach 7. This combined with the Iskander’s high maneuverability and its advanced radar evading capabilities makes it particularly difficult to intercept. The missile system is prized for its high mobility and short launch time, which combined with Azerbaijan’s very limited strike assets means it will be able to reliably launch precision strikes on Azeri targets. The Iskander is a potential game changer for its ability to neutralize high value targets such as airfields, command centers, S-300 batteries and troop concentrations with little to no warning, and is capable of deploying specialized cluster and penetrative warheads for these purposes.
Until the delivery of the first Su-30 fighters, the S-300PT was Armenia’s only credible asset for long range air defence. Although far from state of the art, this Soviet era S-300 variant is still highly capable and is more than sufficient to threaten Azeri aircraft which are themselves considered out of date in terms of survivability. The S-300PT is believed to have entered service in 1982, and is equipped with the 5V55KD surface to air missile which provides a 90km engagement range and benefits from a terminal semi active radar homing guidance mode for improved precision. The platform its notably less advanced than newer S-300 variants in Azeri service, but still more than sufficient to serve as a complement to the Su-30SM. The S-300PT can be relied on to provide a basic defensive capability once the Azeri Air Force has been weakened and fighter jets begin to concentrate more on air to ground operations.
However, the biggest problem for Armenians in this war is not the Azerbaijan army, but Turkey and its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It is the powerful Turkish army that indirectly inflicts great damage on the Armenians. Behind it all, there is the Erdogan’s Ottoman policy.
In fact, Turkey has been one of the main foreign actors in the Libyan Civil War from the very beginning and it directly military intervened in the conflict in Libya. But after the initial successes, Turkey received a decisive response from Russia, Egypt and France. Turkey has failed in Syria, although its mercenaries (terrorists) are still being held in Idlib. However, their position are weakening every day. In the eastern Mediterranean, Turkey also received a decisive response. Greece, France and Cyprus (with the support of the United States) have made known to Erdogan that a Turkish military option there is out of question. It is also important to point out that the economic situation in Turkey is deteriorating.
And that is why Erdogan is now trying to create a “ serious fire ” in the Caucasus, at the Russian shipyard. The main objective is to increase its negotiating strength vis-à-vis Russia in order to gain Moscow’s support for the Turkish position in Syria and Libya. However, despite Erdogan’s strong will, Turkey is still not strong enough for this. On the contrary, Russia’s policy towards Turkey will be stronger in the future.
The fact that Russia is now passive about what is happening in Nagorno Karabakh is just because Russia does not want to make Azerbaijan an enemy that may fully embrace United States and Turkey. It is enough to look at how many weapons Azerbaijan buys from Russia, as well as their strategic cooperation, to clearly understand how close the relations are. However, one thing must also be clear: should Azerbaijan together with Turkish mercenaries attack directly the Armenian territory, without a doubt, Russia will enter in the conflict to protect Armenia.
Author: Slaviša Milačić – Historian and independent analyst, Montenegro
(The views expressed in this article belong only to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy or views of World Geostrategic Insights).
Image Credit: Website President of the Republic of Azerbaijan